Brexit deal nigh or nyet? - Teh Forum

<body> <div id="header"> <span class="left"> <span class="back"><a href="lthread_list.php?webtag=DEFAULT"><span class="image mobile_back" title="Back"></span></a></span> <span class="image mobile_logo" title="Beehive Forum Logo"></span> </span> <ul> <li> <a class="reply_all" href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42264.0&return_msg=42264.21"> <span class="image mobile_reply_all"></span><span class="text">Reply to All</span> </a> </li> <li> <a class="navigation" href="#"> <span class="image mobile_navigation"></span><span class="text">Show messages</span> </a> </li> <li> <a class="main" href="#"><span class="image mobile_menu" title="Menu"></span> </a> </li> </ul> </div> <div class="menu main"> <ul> <li><a href="lthread_list.php?webtag=DEFAULT">Messages</a></li> <li><a href="lpm.php?webtag=DEFAULT">Inbox</a></li> <li><a href="lsearch.php?webtag=DEFAULT">Search</a></li> <li><a href="llogon.php?webtag=DEFAULT">Login</a></li> </ul> </div> <div class="menu navigation"><a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.1">1–10</a><a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.11">11–20</a><a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.21">21–30</a><a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.31">31–40</a>…<a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.191">191–200</a></div> <div id="page_content"> <h3 class="thread_title"><a href="index.php?webtag=DEFAULT&amp;msg=42264.21">Brexit deal nigh or nyet?</a> </h3> <div id="messages" data-navigation="42264_21_200_10"> <a name="a42264_21"></a><div class="message" id="message_42264_21"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)<span class="message_time">15 Jan 2019 19:51</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: ANT_THOMAS <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 15 Jan 2019 19:54"></span></span> <span class="message_count">21 of 200</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.21">42264.21</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.20">42264.20</a></div> <div class="message_body"> Pretty much according to script. <span class="emoticon e_horror" title=":-&"><span class="e__">:-&</span></span> </div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42264.21&return_msg=42264.21" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42264.21"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a42264_22"></a><div class="message" id="message_42264_22"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: koswix<span class="message_time">15 Jan 2019 20:57</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: ANT_THOMAS <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 15 Jan 2019 21:56"></span></span> <span class="message_count">22 of 200</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.22">42264.22</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.20">42264.20</a></div> <div class="message_body"> In, out, shake it all about brexit?<br /><br /> Quite possible that we're going to sleepwalk right into a No Deal brexit. She'll survive the confidence vote tomorrow (Tories aren't going to vote against her and risk getting Corbyn, DUP have initially signalled they'll support her), EU aren't going to shift on the offer that's on the table so we're basically fucked on that front.<br /><br /> The only reasonable way out of this that I can see is May calling a second referendum. Everyone (well, a decent majority at least) agrees that No Deal is not a viable option, so perhaps a referendum on May's Deal or Remain? Really don't know where the fuck this is going to end.</div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42264.22&return_msg=42264.21" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42264.22"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a42264_23"></a><div class="message" id="message_42264_23"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: milko<span class="message_time">15 Jan 2019 21:28</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: CHYRON (DSMITHHFX) <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 16 Jan 2019 10:00"></span></span> <span class="message_count">23 of 200</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.23">42264.23</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.19">42264.19</a></div> <div class="message_body"> watching it like a carcrash I think.<br /><br /> I wonder what awful turn of events will happen next. There's still a tiny tiny sliver of hope that someone will find a way to put it into the "we tried but it's not possible without fucking everybody over" bin successfully, ideally with a Corbyn government at the end of that somehow. Don't know how though!</div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42264.23&return_msg=42264.21" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42264.23"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a42264_24"></a><div class="message" id="message_42264_24"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: william (WILLIAMA)<span class="message_time">15 Jan 2019 21:53</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: koswix <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 15 Jan 2019 21:53"></span></span> <span class="message_count">24 of 200</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.24">42264.24</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.21#a42264_22" target="_self">42264.22</a></div> <div class="message_body"> I spent a year and a half working on the millennium bug and then, a few years later, I worked for the main contractor for the rewrite of the Customs and Excise IT systems including the huge SAP based systems that run the UK's tax relationship with the EU. <br /><br /> I watched systems fail over and over using simple time-shifting simulations, so I know the millennium bug was a real problem that would have been a global disaster if billions of pounds and dollars had not been spent all over the world putting it right. When Jacob and Boris dismiss it as an illusion, I seriously doubt their grasp of the issues and maturity as decision makers.<br /><br /> I know that it took over 15 years before the Customs and Excise IT systems even felt like they could do the job and I'm well aware that a nudge can cause queues at ports, because we SAW queues at ports when tiny things went wrong. And that was with the 'friction-less' EU. The idea that these systems can be supplanted at the drop of a hat with some magical technological solution is beyond laughable even if Boris and Jacob know all about IT having successfully installed apps on their iPhones loads of times.<br /><br /> The whole thing is too depressing for words.<br /><br /> Also, the government sneaked through a major change to pensions that will make the poorest married couples significantly poorer (by £thousands) if only one is of pensionable age, knowing that the issue would be overshadowed by the Brexit vote. I feel ashamed to breathe the same air sometimes.<div class="edit_text">EDITED: 15 Jan 2019 22:01 by WILLIAMA</div> </div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42264.24&return_msg=42264.21" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42264.24"> <span class="rating">+1/1</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a42264_25"></a><div class="message" id="message_42264_25"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: koswix<span class="message_time">15 Jan 2019 21:56</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: william (WILLIAMA) <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 15 Jan 2019 21:57"></span></span> <span class="message_count">25 of 200</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.25">42264.25</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.21#a42264_24" target="_self">42264.24</a></div> <div class="message_body"> I'd say it's time for a revolution, but I'm just so busy at the moment.</div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42264.25&return_msg=42264.21" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42264.25"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a42264_26"></a><div class="message" id="message_42264_26"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: william (WILLIAMA)<span class="message_time">15 Jan 2019 21:57</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: koswix <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 17 Jan 2019 22:52"></span></span> <span class="message_count">26 of 200</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.26">42264.26</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.21#a42264_25" target="_self">42264.25</a></div> <div class="message_body"> It's a bitch, isn't it?</div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42264.26&return_msg=42264.21" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42264.26"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a42264_27"></a><div class="message" id="message_42264_27"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: ANT_THOMAS<span class="message_time">15 Jan 2019 22:01</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: milko <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 16 Jan 2019 18:06"></span></span> <span class="message_count">27 of 200</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.27">42264.27</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.21#a42264_23" target="_self">42264.23</a></div> <div class="message_body"> Is your preference for a Corbyn government just that it will mean no more Tories? Or do you specifically want a Corbyn Labour government over say an alternative leader Labour government? </div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42264.27&return_msg=42264.21" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42264.27"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a42264_28"></a><div class="message" id="message_42264_28"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: Manthorp<span class="message_time">16 Jan 2019 07:06</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: ALL<span class="message_count">28 of 200</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.28">42264.28</a></div> <div class="message_body"> The no confidence vote will fail because there's not a single Tory or DUP MP who will support it. May will, nominally, consult with the other party leaders, but has clearly set out that she won't support a customs union, which is the minimum that Labour would accept to support her (they'd expect some additional workers' protections too, but those could be finessed). So on Monday she'll return to parliament with a deal that's virtually identical to yesterday's and it'll be comprehensively rejected again.<br /><br /> At that point, she'll propose an extension to Article 50 and the EU will accept. May will probably start to pursue a Norway+ model, pressured by Labour to go for a harder customs union. The EU *might* soften their position a bit, recognising that all the above makes a hard Brexit a genuine possibility.<br /><br /> I am increasingly convinced that the Labour shadow cabinet won't support a second referendum under any circumstances. It's just possible that an extension to Article 50 and the intransigence of the Tory & Labour executives will precipitate the formation of a new, centrist pro-Remain party, but I wouldn't be betting my last tenner on it.<div class="edit_text">EDITED: 16 Jan 2019 07:07 by MANTHORP</div> </div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42264.28&return_msg=42264.21" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42264.28"> <span class="rating">+1/1</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a42264_29"></a><div class="message" id="message_42264_29"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)<span class="message_time">16 Jan 2019 10:09</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: koswix <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 17 Jan 2019 22:52"></span></span> <span class="message_count">29 of 200</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.29">42264.29</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.21#a42264_25" target="_self">42264.25</a></div> <div class="message_body"> "The revolution starts after the next pint."</div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42264.29&return_msg=42264.21" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42264.29"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a42264_30"></a><div class="message" id="message_42264_30"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: milko<span class="message_time">16 Jan 2019 18:16</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: ANT_THOMAS <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 16 Jan 2019 20:29"></span></span> <span class="message_count">30 of 200</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.30">42264.30</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.21#a42264_27" target="_self">42264.27</a></div> <div class="message_body"> I mean a specifically Corbyn government, but failing that I'd settle for one built on his policies and manifesto but with whatever personality-vacuum focus-grouped suit figurehead will let the centrists stop whinging about Labour for a few weeks and actually focus on the real bad guys over the other side of the chamber. We need to roll back austerity and start to nationalise shit, pronto.<br /><br /> Moving elsewhere in the discussion there's not a single poll that makes a compelling case that a party on a pro-remain ticket will get anywhere but down, sadly. The way Labour have played this so far is the only possible chance, in my opinion - hedge to the max, let the tories fuck it up, wait for the chance to actually affect things positively. If remain is not possible by then, just by not shooting too much of our foot off. Odds are pretty good that in a second referendum (note, by the way, that the FBPE crowd don't even seem to know what options should be in such a referendum) Leave would win again anyway.<br /><br /> I suppose in the immediate future, following the inevitable failure of the confidence vote, we have to hope May finally shifts these fuckwit 'red lines' that have caused much of the trouble since the referendum anyway.</div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42264.30&return_msg=42264.21" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42264.30"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div></div> <div class="message_page_footer"> <ul> <li class="right_col"><form accept-charset="utf-8" method="get" action="lmessages.php" target="_self"><input type="hidden" name="webtag" id="webtag" class="bhinputtext" value="DEFAULT" dir="ltr" /><input type="hidden" name="msg" id="msg" class="bhinputtext" value="42264.31" dir="ltr" /><input type="submit" name="submit" id="keep_reading" value="Keep reading…" class="button" /></form></li> </ul> </div> </div> </body>