Brexit deal nigh or nyet? - Teh Forum

<body> <div id="header"> <span class="left"> <span class="back"><a href="lthread_list.php?webtag=DEFAULT"><span class="image mobile_back" title="Back"></span></a></span> <span class="image mobile_logo" title="Beehive Forum Logo"></span> </span> <ul> <li> <a class="reply_all" href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42264.0&return_msg=42264.105"> <span class="image mobile_reply_all"></span><span class="text">Reply to All</span> </a> </li> <li> <a class="navigation" href="#"> <span class="image mobile_navigation"></span><span class="text">Show messages</span> </a> </li> <li> <a class="main" href="#"><span class="image mobile_menu" title="Menu"></span> </a> </li> </ul> </div> <div class="menu main"> <ul> <li><a href="lthread_list.php?webtag=DEFAULT">Messages</a></li> <li><a href="lpm.php?webtag=DEFAULT">Inbox</a></li> <li><a href="lsearch.php?webtag=DEFAULT">Search</a></li> <li><a href="llogon.php?webtag=DEFAULT">Login</a></li> </ul> </div> <div class="menu navigation"><a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.1">1–10</a>…<a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.81">81–90</a><a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.91">91–100</a><a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.101">101–110</a><a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.111">111–120</a>…<a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.191">191–200</a></div> <div id="page_content"> <h3 class="thread_title"><a href="index.php?webtag=DEFAULT&amp;msg=42264.105">Brexit deal nigh or nyet?</a> </h3> <div id="messages" data-navigation="42264_105_200_10"> <a name="a42264_105"></a><div class="message" id="message_42264_105"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: Manthorp<span class="message_time">28 Mar 2019 11:28</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: ANT_THOMAS <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 28 Mar 2019 11:52"></span></span> <span class="message_count">105 of 200</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.105">42264.105</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.103">42264.103</a></div> <div class="message_body"> From a cursory inspection of the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/ng-interactive/2019/mar/27/how-did-your-mp-vote-in-the-indicative-votes">Guardian's explainer</a>, at least some of the shadow cabinet abstained from some of the motions, generally clustered around motions 5 (emergency revocation of article 50 if parliament doesn't get its shit together) and 8 (weird Schengenish shit where we remain within EEA and join Efta, but don't have a customs union).</div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42264.105&return_msg=42264.105" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42264.105"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a42264_106"></a><div class="message" id="message_42264_106"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: william (WILLIAMA)<span class="message_time">28 Mar 2019 12:31</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: Manthorp <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 28 Mar 2019 13:17"></span></span> <span class="message_count">106 of 200</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.106">42264.106</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.105#a42264_105" target="_self">42264.105</a></div> <div class="message_body"> Hah! Bumped into a former work-colleague yesterday evening. He works on what I regard as 'Nightmare Central', the massively complex mixture of billions of lines of bespoke code across dozens of platforms, and customised SAP modules that run our current Customs and Excise systems. He told me that he's working on 'Brexit stuff' but as nobody knows what this means he's pretty certain that he's wasting his time. He's one of those genuinely technically adept people you meet from time to time, with knowledge that's both broad and deep. He also has an excellent working knowledge of the infrastructure, so basically just the kind of person who would be essential for some kind of sanity to prevail in the months and years ahead. He tells me he plans to retire 'very soon' because he doesn't want to face the thankless future that will inevitably arrive whatever the Brexit outcome. <br /><br /> But I was able to reassure him that I have it on good authority from Jacob Rees Mogg and Bojo that it will actually be about as simple as installing a smartphone app.</div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42264.106&return_msg=42264.105" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42264.106"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a42264_107"></a><div class="message" id="message_42264_107"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: Manthorp<span class="message_time">28 Mar 2019 13:23</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: william (WILLIAMA) <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 28 Mar 2019 13:35"></span></span> <span class="message_count">107 of 200</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.107">42264.107</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.105#a42264_106" target="_self">42264.106</a></div> <div class="message_body"> Poor bastard! I wonder if they're building different system models around all of the possible outcomes, or working on the assumption that the most outlandish ones aren't gonna happen.</div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42264.107&return_msg=42264.105" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42264.107"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a42264_108"></a><div class="message" id="message_42264_108"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: william (WILLIAMA)<span class="message_time">28 Mar 2019 13:57</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: Manthorp <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 28 Mar 2019 15:57"></span></span> <span class="message_count">108 of 200</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.108">42264.108</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.105#a42264_107" target="_self">42264.107</a></div> <div class="message_body"> My guess would be that they are doing almost nothing because these systems are almost incomprehensibly huge and complex with inter-dependencies that are probably not even known in detail, parts dating back to the 1980s, 3rd party elements (e.g. SAP, IBM, BMC, etc etc) that are black boxes and so on. Any modelling of alternatives in anything other than the broadest most superficial ways would be a) very difficult b) very time consuming and c) most important, very expensive. <br /><br /> Clearly, whatever the outcome of Brexit, we aren't looking at the whole lot being swept away, because there are parts which handle a range of similar international relationships to those we might face. But the point is changes are likely to be substantial and the two main contractors are private companies that don't like doing things for free.<br /><br /> I worked in an adjacent team, so I knew the people involved. We were a database support team (a load of DBAs) so very occasionally we advised on basic database issues, but SAP has it's own support methods and we stayed well clear if at all possible. </div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42264.108&return_msg=42264.105" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42264.108"> <span class="rating">+1/1</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a42264_109"></a><div class="message" id="message_42264_109"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)<span class="message_time">28 Mar 2019 14:11</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: william (WILLIAMA) <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 28 Mar 2019 15:56"></span></span> <span class="message_count">109 of 200</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.109">42264.109</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.105#a42264_108" target="_self">42264.108</a></div> <div class="message_body"> Here we still haven't recovered from an attempted rebuild of the civil service payroll software, which has been through several time and cost overruns over the years and still doesn't work right, with some going unpaid for months because FUBAR.</div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42264.109&return_msg=42264.105" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42264.109"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a42264_110"></a><div class="message" id="message_42264_110"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: milko<span class="message_time">28 Mar 2019 14:12</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: william (WILLIAMA) <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 28 Mar 2019 15:56"></span></span> <span class="message_count">110 of 200</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.110">42264.110</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.105#a42264_108" target="_self">42264.108</a></div> <div class="message_body"> is there a sort of Keynesian argument that having to spend a shitload of money on doing this sort of thing will provide quite a few people with jobs and so on? I dunno, it's a bit tenuous! Just trying to eke out any kind of positive. </div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42264.110&return_msg=42264.105" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42264.110"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a42264_111"></a><div class="message" id="message_42264_111"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: Manthorp<span class="message_time">28 Mar 2019 15:59</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: william (WILLIAMA) <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 28 Mar 2019 16:00"></span></span> <span class="message_count">111 of 200</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.111">42264.111</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.105#a42264_108" target="_self">42264.108</a></div> <div class="message_body"> Sounds like the kind of lash-up that in a world of crystalline perfection should be audited, and a new system built from the ground up.</div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42264.111&return_msg=42264.105" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42264.111"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a42264_112"></a><div class="message" id="message_42264_112"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: Manthorp<span class="message_time">28 Mar 2019 16:03</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: milko <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 28 Mar 2019 17:58"></span></span> <span class="message_count">112 of 200</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.112">42264.112</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.105#a42264_110" target="_self">42264.110</a></div> <div class="message_body"> Like HS2 and other capital projects. I think of them as the equivalent of follies in the eighteenth century: consciously or not providing redistribution of wealth during fallow times, whilst not undermining patronage or the value of labour.</div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42264.112&return_msg=42264.105" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42264.112"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a42264_113"></a><div class="message" id="message_42264_113"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: william (WILLIAMA)<span class="message_time">28 Mar 2019 16:40</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: Manthorp <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 1 Apr 2019 07:32"></span></span> <span class="message_count">113 of 200</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.113">42264.113</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.105#a42264_111" target="_self">42264.111</a></div> <div class="message_body"> <div class="quotetext"><strong>Quote:</strong> </div> <div class="quote">a world of crystalline perfection</div> Yeah right.<br /><br /> Actually, it is (or was) regularly audited, ISO Certification and all that, but because it's so massive the actual audit could only be done on bite-sized pieces. The issues for rebuilding are as numerous as a big numbery thing and I'm not sure what kind of appetite HMRC has for mega-rebuilds. They got a nasty bite from flirting with Hadoop a while back.<br /><br /> @Milko, I'm sure a good Keynesian argument could be made. Problem is we (maybe) leave the EU in a few weeks and at best we get a transition of less than 2 years at which point the systems must chug along as sweetly as they do now. If there's no deal and no transition then Shit Creek is low on paddles.<br /><br /> @DSSMITHHFX, I'm not in the least bit surprised. Public projects like this have a history of never learning from the previous fuck-up. They almost always aim to select the best (=cheapest) bids but simultaneously fail to spot that there's a reason those bids are the cheapest. Also, senior managers in the public service are notoriously fond of shiny things when they buy IT. If they can see a shiny icon (on the shiny new laptop that comes with the project) and clicking the icon makes shiny things happen, then they invariably pony up the funding even if it's a million miles from what the business needs.<br /> </div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42264.113&return_msg=42264.105" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42264.113"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a42264_114"></a><div class="message" id="message_42264_114"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)<span class="message_time">28 Mar 2019 17:30</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: william (WILLIAMA) <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 28 Mar 2019 20:01"></span></span> <span class="message_count">114 of 200</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.114">42264.114</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.105#a42264_113" target="_self">42264.113</a></div> <div class="message_body"> <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoenix_pay_system">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoenix_pay_system</a><br /><br /> Original estimate & launch date: $310 million, 2015<br /><br /> Current estimate: $2.2 billion, still not working.<br /><br /> Lots of finger-pointing, no accountability.<div class="edit_text">EDITED: 28 Mar 2019 17:34 by DSMITHHFX</div> </div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42264.114&return_msg=42264.105" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42264.114"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div></div> <div class="message_page_footer"> <ul> <li class="right_col"><form accept-charset="utf-8" method="get" action="lmessages.php" target="_self"><input type="hidden" name="webtag" id="webtag" class="bhinputtext" value="DEFAULT" dir="ltr" /><input type="hidden" name="msg" id="msg" class="bhinputtext" value="42264.115" dir="ltr" /><input type="submit" name="submit" id="keep_reading" value="Keep reading…" class="button" /></form></li> </ul> </div> </div> </body>