Brexit deal nigh or nyet? - Teh Forum

<body> <div id="header"> <span class="left"> <span class="back"><a href="lthread_list.php?webtag=DEFAULT"><span class="image mobile_back" title="Back"></span></a></span> <span class="image mobile_logo" title="Beehive Forum Logo"></span> </span> <ul> <li> <a class="reply_all" href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42264.0&return_msg=42264.100"> <span class="image mobile_reply_all"></span><span class="text">Reply to All</span> </a> </li> <li> <a class="navigation" href="#"> <span class="image mobile_navigation"></span><span class="text">Show messages</span> </a> </li> <li> <a class="main" href="#"><span class="image mobile_menu" title="Menu"></span> </a> </li> </ul> </div> <div class="menu main"> <ul> <li><a href="lthread_list.php?webtag=DEFAULT">Messages</a></li> <li><a href="lpm.php?webtag=DEFAULT">Inbox</a></li> <li><a href="lsearch.php?webtag=DEFAULT">Search</a></li> <li><a href="llogon.php?webtag=DEFAULT">Login</a></li> </ul> </div> <div class="menu navigation"><a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.1">1–10</a>…<a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.81">81–90</a><a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.91">91–100</a><a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.101">101–110</a><a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.111">111–120</a>…<a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.191">191–200</a></div> <div id="page_content"> <h3 class="thread_title"><a href="index.php?webtag=DEFAULT&amp;msg=42264.100">Brexit deal nigh or nyet?</a> </h3> <div id="messages" data-navigation="42264_100_200_10"> <a name="a42264_100"></a><div class="message" id="message_42264_100"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: Peter (BOUGHTONP)<span class="message_time">27 Mar 2019 23:40</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: ALL<span class="message_count">100 of 200</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.100">42264.100</a></div> <div class="message_body"> Interesting stats: <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/ng-interactive/2019/mar/27/how-did-your-mp-vote-in-the-indicative-votes">https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/ng-interactive/2019/mar/27/how-did-your-mp-vote-in-the-indicative-votes</a> <p>(Though fuck knows why the idiots have numbered them in popularity order for the first list and motion order for the second list, instead of just sticking with the letters that everyone else is using.) </p><p>Customs union option would have had majority if LibDem/SNP had gone for it. Public vote could have had majority if just 14 Labour MPs had gone the other way (or DUP+4 independents), but there appears less disunity there than with the Conservatives. </p><p>A significant number of Conservatives voting against <em>every</em> motion. No surprise. </p><p>And they all vote again on Monday in case things are different then?</p></div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42264.100&return_msg=42264.100" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42264.100"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a42264_101"></a><div class="message" id="message_42264_101"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: Manthorp<span class="message_time">28 Mar 2019 09:21</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: Peter (BOUGHTONP) <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 28 Mar 2019 22:26"></span></span> <span class="message_count">101 of 200</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.101">42264.101</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.100#a42264_100" target="_self">42264.100</a></div> <div class="message_body"> Labour whipped a couple of the motions, which might have helped.</div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42264.101&return_msg=42264.100" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42264.101"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a42264_102"></a><div class="message" id="message_42264_102"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)<span class="message_time">28 Mar 2019 09:27</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: Manthorp <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 28 Mar 2019 11:08"></span></span> <span class="message_count">102 of 200</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.102">42264.102</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.100#a42264_101" target="_self">42264.101</a></div> <div class="message_body"> It'll be interesting to see if more parties emerge out of all this disagreeability. Reminds me of Israel, where the smallest and most fanatical ones end up with wildly disproportionate influence.<div class="edit_text">EDITED: 28 Mar 2019 09:28 by DSMITHHFX</div> </div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42264.102&return_msg=42264.100" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42264.102"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a42264_103"></a><div class="message" id="message_42264_103"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: ANT_THOMAS<span class="message_time">28 Mar 2019 09:46</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: Manthorp <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 28 Mar 2019 11:08"></span></span> <span class="message_count">103 of 200</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.103">42264.103</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.100#a42264_101" target="_self">42264.101</a></div> <div class="message_body"> Labour whipped a couple of motions and didn't some of the shadow cabinet abstain?<br /> <br /> Not checked the details, but sure I've read that. </div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42264.103&return_msg=42264.100" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42264.103"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a42264_104"></a><div class="message" id="message_42264_104"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: Manthorp<span class="message_time">28 Mar 2019 11:21</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: CHYRON (DSMITHHFX) <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 28 Mar 2019 14:08"></span></span> <span class="message_count">104 of 200</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.104">42264.104</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.100#a42264_102" target="_self">42264.102</a></div> <div class="message_body"> I certainly think that the voting reform argument will rear its head again, which - if it was to come to anything - would certainly empower the smaller parties, and probably encourage other interest lobbies to partify themselves.</div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42264.104&return_msg=42264.100" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42264.104"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a42264_105"></a><div class="message" id="message_42264_105"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: Manthorp<span class="message_time">28 Mar 2019 11:28</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: ANT_THOMAS <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 28 Mar 2019 11:52"></span></span> <span class="message_count">105 of 200</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.105">42264.105</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.100#a42264_103" target="_self">42264.103</a></div> <div class="message_body"> From a cursory inspection of the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/ng-interactive/2019/mar/27/how-did-your-mp-vote-in-the-indicative-votes">Guardian's explainer</a>, at least some of the shadow cabinet abstained from some of the motions, generally clustered around motions 5 (emergency revocation of article 50 if parliament doesn't get its shit together) and 8 (weird Schengenish shit where we remain within EEA and join Efta, but don't have a customs union).</div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42264.105&return_msg=42264.100" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42264.105"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a42264_106"></a><div class="message" id="message_42264_106"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: william (WILLIAMA)<span class="message_time">28 Mar 2019 12:31</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: Manthorp <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 28 Mar 2019 13:17"></span></span> <span class="message_count">106 of 200</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.106">42264.106</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.100#a42264_105" target="_self">42264.105</a></div> <div class="message_body"> Hah! Bumped into a former work-colleague yesterday evening. He works on what I regard as 'Nightmare Central', the massively complex mixture of billions of lines of bespoke code across dozens of platforms, and customised SAP modules that run our current Customs and Excise systems. He told me that he's working on 'Brexit stuff' but as nobody knows what this means he's pretty certain that he's wasting his time. He's one of those genuinely technically adept people you meet from time to time, with knowledge that's both broad and deep. He also has an excellent working knowledge of the infrastructure, so basically just the kind of person who would be essential for some kind of sanity to prevail in the months and years ahead. He tells me he plans to retire 'very soon' because he doesn't want to face the thankless future that will inevitably arrive whatever the Brexit outcome. <br /><br /> But I was able to reassure him that I have it on good authority from Jacob Rees Mogg and Bojo that it will actually be about as simple as installing a smartphone app.</div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42264.106&return_msg=42264.100" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42264.106"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a42264_107"></a><div class="message" id="message_42264_107"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: Manthorp<span class="message_time">28 Mar 2019 13:23</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: william (WILLIAMA) <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 28 Mar 2019 13:35"></span></span> <span class="message_count">107 of 200</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.107">42264.107</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.100#a42264_106" target="_self">42264.106</a></div> <div class="message_body"> Poor bastard! I wonder if they're building different system models around all of the possible outcomes, or working on the assumption that the most outlandish ones aren't gonna happen.</div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42264.107&return_msg=42264.100" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42264.107"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a42264_108"></a><div class="message" id="message_42264_108"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: william (WILLIAMA)<span class="message_time">28 Mar 2019 13:57</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: Manthorp <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 28 Mar 2019 15:57"></span></span> <span class="message_count">108 of 200</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.108">42264.108</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.100#a42264_107" target="_self">42264.107</a></div> <div class="message_body"> My guess would be that they are doing almost nothing because these systems are almost incomprehensibly huge and complex with inter-dependencies that are probably not even known in detail, parts dating back to the 1980s, 3rd party elements (e.g. SAP, IBM, BMC, etc etc) that are black boxes and so on. Any modelling of alternatives in anything other than the broadest most superficial ways would be a) very difficult b) very time consuming and c) most important, very expensive. <br /><br /> Clearly, whatever the outcome of Brexit, we aren't looking at the whole lot being swept away, because there are parts which handle a range of similar international relationships to those we might face. But the point is changes are likely to be substantial and the two main contractors are private companies that don't like doing things for free.<br /><br /> I worked in an adjacent team, so I knew the people involved. We were a database support team (a load of DBAs) so very occasionally we advised on basic database issues, but SAP has it's own support methods and we stayed well clear if at all possible. </div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42264.108&return_msg=42264.100" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42264.108"> <span class="rating">+1/1</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a42264_109"></a><div class="message" id="message_42264_109"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)<span class="message_time">28 Mar 2019 14:11</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: william (WILLIAMA) <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 28 Mar 2019 15:56"></span></span> <span class="message_count">109 of 200</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.109">42264.109</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42264.100#a42264_108" target="_self">42264.108</a></div> <div class="message_body"> Here we still haven't recovered from an attempted rebuild of the civil service payroll software, which has been through several time and cost overruns over the years and still doesn't work right, with some going unpaid for months because FUBAR.</div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42264.109&return_msg=42264.100" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42264.109"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div></div> <div class="message_page_footer"> <ul> <li class="right_col"><form accept-charset="utf-8" method="get" action="lmessages.php" target="_self"><input type="hidden" name="webtag" id="webtag" class="bhinputtext" value="DEFAULT" dir="ltr" /><input type="hidden" name="msg" id="msg" class="bhinputtext" value="42264.110" dir="ltr" /><input type="submit" name="submit" id="keep_reading" value="Keep reading…" class="button" /></form></li> </ul> </div> </div> </body>