War & PoliticsBrexit deal nigh or nyet?

  

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 From:  Manthorp   16 Jan 2019 07:06 
 To:  ALL 28 of 200 
42264.28 
The no confidence vote will fail because there's not a single Tory or DUP MP who will support it.  May will, nominally, consult with the other party leaders, but has clearly set out that she won't support a customs union, which is the minimum that Labour would accept to support her (they'd expect some additional workers' protections too, but those could be finessed). So on Monday she'll return to parliament with a deal that's virtually identical to yesterday's and it'll be comprehensively rejected again.

At that point, she'll propose an extension to Article 50 and the EU will accept. May will probably start to pursue a Norway+ model, pressured by Labour to go for a harder customs union. The EU *might* soften their position a bit, recognising that all the above makes a hard Brexit a genuine possibility.

I am increasingly convinced that the Labour shadow cabinet won't support a second referendum under any circumstances.  It's just possible that an extension to Article 50 and the intransigence of the Tory & Labour executives will precipitate the formation of a new, centrist pro-Remain party, but I wouldn't be betting my last tenner on it.
"We all have flaws, and mine is being wicked."
James Thurber, The Thirteen Clocks 1951
 
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 From:  CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)    16 Jan 2019 10:09 
 To:  koswix      29 of 200 
42264.29 In reply to 42264.25 
"The revolution starts after the next pint."
“I’m old, sedentary and slouch a lot – will standing up at my desk … um, never mind.”
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 From:  milko   16 Jan 2019 18:16 
 To:  ANT_THOMAS      30 of 200 
42264.30 In reply to 42264.27 
I mean a specifically Corbyn government, but failing that I'd settle for one built on his policies and manifesto but with whatever personality-vacuum focus-grouped suit figurehead will let the centrists stop whinging about Labour for a few weeks and actually focus on the real bad guys over the other side of the chamber. We need to roll back austerity and start to nationalise shit, pronto.

Moving elsewhere in the discussion there's not a single poll that makes a compelling case that a party on a pro-remain ticket will get anywhere but down, sadly. The way Labour have played this so far is the only possible chance, in my opinion - hedge to the max, let the tories fuck it up, wait for the chance to actually affect things positively. If remain is not possible by then, just by not shooting too much of our foot off. Odds are pretty good that in a second referendum (note, by the way, that the FBPE crowd don't even seem to know what options should be in such a referendum) Leave would win again anyway.

I suppose in the immediate future, following the inevitable failure of the confidence vote, we have to hope May finally shifts these fuckwit 'red lines' that have caused much of the trouble since the referendum anyway.
milko
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 From:  william (WILLIAMA)   16 Jan 2019 20:36 
 To:  milko      31 of 200 
42264.31 In reply to 42264.30 
There isn't much that I don't agree with about that post. However, the huge risk in allowing the Tory party to fuck it up is that it allows the 85% (and I plucked that from the air so no pie charts please -  a simple agreement that I am correct will do) of the media controlled by the Tory Party to pursue their narrative about what Corbyn and the Labour party are about. I include the BBC in that seeing as all of the main political correspondents are clearly on the right including Andrew Marr who was a lefty when he thought it would get him laid at university, but now is too stupid to realise that he's happily right of centre.

I picked on Marr because a similar story can be told about Gove, who I just watched in his pomp, strutting and frothing in the no-confidence debate. Gove, of course, was a union activist when he couldn't get his willy into action any other way, but now thinks unions (and Corbyn) are spawn of the devil as set out in his "Idiot's Guide to Becoming Prime Minister". I wanted to watch his speech all the way through, but a bit of sick came up and I had to rush for a glass of water.

May and her red-lines? God knows. She's just invited party-leaders to talks on how they can better agree to her plan. No preconditions other than attending in French-maid costumes and publicly admitting how wrong they were to oppose her.

 
never trust a man in a blue trench coat, never drive a car when you're dead
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 From:  CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)    16 Jan 2019 20:59 
 To:  william (WILLIAMA)      32 of 200 
42264.32 In reply to 42264.31 
"a simple agreement that I am correct will do"

You stole that from May!
“I’m old, sedentary and slouch a lot – will standing up at my desk … um, never mind.”
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 From:  milko   16 Jan 2019 21:25 
 To:  william (WILLIAMA)      33 of 200 
42264.33 In reply to 42264.31 
I’m just not sure what choice there has been other than watching them fuck it up. It’s only today that May has even offered any cross party talks on it, and you just know they’ll not be in any way productive. If she folds on the red lines then half her own party rebels. Then again, she’s got until December to worry about that now so perhaps there’s a chance!

I think labour and Corbyn have been pretty clear about what they want really; guaranteed rights for EU citizens, close ties, seeking an election most of all but other options to follow now including maybe this fabled second referendum. The right and centre press has reported this terribly and lied throughout, and there seems no way to change that no matter what they do. Even bland old Ed Miliband copped the same kind of shit. So, hope to get in and Levenson 2 those fuckers I suppose, along with the rest of it. Ugh, our own Rendle tweeted a few minutes ago saying any other opposition leader would’ve won the confidence vote today. What, persuaded Tories to vote themselves out of a job and got the DU fucking P onside somehow? I’m almost interested enough to actually ask him how. Reality distortion fields seem powerful these days.

Anyway yeah I’m pretty depressed by it all when I fail in the project of not thinking about it.
milko
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 From:  william (WILLIAMA)   16 Jan 2019 21:39 
 To:  CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)       34 of 200 
42264.34 In reply to 42264.32 
I'm simply presenting a strong and stable argument that is in the interests of this thread.
never trust a man in a blue trench coat, never drive a car when you're dead
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 From:  ANT_THOMAS   16 Jan 2019 21:49 
 To:  milko      35 of 200 
42264.35 In reply to 42264.33 
There was no chance they'd lose the no confidence vote. Definitely ridiculous to think otherwise. No matter how many Tory MPs voted against the deal, every single one of them wants to be in the party of government.

I'd also like a Corbyn government, or at least did before he effectively became pro-Brexit. Though I do realise he is somewhat sitting on the fence deliberately as a reasonable number of Labour voters and traditionally Labour areas support leaving.

The anti-semitism stuff stinks too.
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 From:  CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)    17 Jan 2019 00:22 
 To:  ANT_THOMAS      36 of 200 
42264.36 In reply to 42264.35 
Supposedly he's always been anti-EU which, seeings what they did to Greece...
“I’m old, sedentary and slouch a lot – will standing up at my desk … um, never mind.”
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 From:  milko   17 Jan 2019 10:49 
 To:  ANT_THOMAS      37 of 200 
42264.37 In reply to 42264.35 
the anti-semitism stuff seems almost entirely bullshit though. 

and I don't agree he's become pro-Brexit, I think that's just more crappy reporting. He's honest and nuanced about it however!
milko
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 From:  milko   17 Jan 2019 10:52 
 To:  CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)       38 of 200 
42264.38 In reply to 42264.36 
nah, he's been absolutely clear (and then terribly reported) about this: he's about 7/10 in favour of the EU, saying that it has some serious problems (it does) that are better resolved from within and the downsides of leaving are worse than remaining and trying to improve it.

Obviously 99.9% of the press then report this as TRAITOR CORBS HATES YOU AND THE EU but there we are.

Today the PM won't move on the red lines and Corbyn wants her to remove the no-deal possibility as a condition of talks moving forward. So she says no. Watch in a few days where, by her own clever thinking and decision making entirely!, she says no deal won't work and we should avoid it at all costs. 
milko
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 From:  ANT_THOMAS   17 Jan 2019 12:29 
 To:  milko      39 of 200 
42264.39 In reply to 42264.38 
Problem is all MPs who voted to activate Article 50 knew by definition that if they don't agree to a transition deal that automatically results in a no deal Brexit. No deal Brexit would be catastrophic, but they knowingly voted for that.

I agree the anti-semitism has been amplified somewhat, but it's still there on the (far) left.

If he's not pro-Brexit is he then pro implementing the referendum result?
Slightly different with it being a "will of the people" argument.

He's said he would renegotiate a different deal with the EU, single market etc, so that says he'd go ahead with Brexit if in power. Jobs first Brexit and all that, which makes him sound very stupid, because Brexit is pretty much guaranteed to cause job losses in all versions of it. If he would actually do that obviously remains to be seen.
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 From:  milko   17 Jan 2019 14:02 
 To:  ANT_THOMAS      40 of 200 
42264.40 In reply to 42264.39 
All parliament have to be pro-democracy so none of them are going to say they'll reverse it immediately against 'the will of the fucking twats'. What's done is done until such time as they can persuade the masses that it's a bad idea to leave because of the downsides. Hopefully that renegotiation would get us there but given there's has been almost zero minds changed by the clusterfuck so far, I don't have much hope. ugh.

Regarding the far left, that's not really for Corbyn to personally do a lot about. The Party machinery has to do it, which is one of the things that make Labour good since its in the controls of the membership. The standards being asked are ludicrous compared to what many of the critics (EG press, tories) maintain themselves which is well below what Labour have ended up with now.
milko
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 From:  CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)    17 Jan 2019 14:34 
 To:  ANT_THOMAS      41 of 200 
42264.41 In reply to 42264.39 
There's an easy conflation for the mouth-foaming zionists, and Christian fundamentalists hankering for Armageddon to make, and some politically ambitious folks pander to, that all criticism of Israel and Zionism, and all support for Palestinians are ipso-facto anti-Semitic.

I think Corbyn's been consistently pretty careful to draw that line, while some acolytes and associates have not.

The unpleasant fact is that some Israeli Jews, including politicians in government, have declared open hatred of Arabs, and some Palestinians in the occupied territories, and the diaspora, have expressed hatred of Jews, so that kind of makes both those people literal anti-Semites, if you accept that both Arabs and Jews are Semitic (YMMV). It is what it is, and denying it sure AF don't help the situation
“I’m old, sedentary and slouch a lot – will standing up at my desk … um, never mind.”
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 From:  CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)    17 Jan 2019 14:43 
 To:  milko      42 of 200 
42264.42 In reply to 42264.38 
He's playing an interesting and rather dangerous game of liars' poker with May, and at this point I wouldn't bet on either coming out a winner, but the odds are good the UK will come out a loser if 1. May doesn't accept a Norway-ish custom union (assuming that is even possible, some say it isn't) or 2. Corbyn doesn't back a 2nd referendum RSN.
“I’m old, sedentary and slouch a lot – will standing up at my desk … um, never mind.”
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 From:  milko   17 Jan 2019 16:32 
 To:  CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)       43 of 200 
42264.43 In reply to 42264.42 
my current feeling is that a second referendum will also mean UK coming out a loser, but who knows!
milko
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 From:  CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)    17 Jan 2019 16:59 
 To:  milko      44 of 200 
42264.44 In reply to 42264.43 
Current polling appears to show the stay side would have it, but who knows what crazy lies would be spun by Putin et al to proceed with the trainwreck.
“I’m old, sedentary and slouch a lot – will standing up at my desk … um, never mind.”
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 From:  Peter (BOUGHTONP)   17 Jan 2019 20:02 
 To:  ANT_THOMAS      45 of 200 
42264.45 In reply to 42264.39 
> I agree the anti-semitism has been amplified somewhat, but it's still there on the (far) left.

What exactly is still where?

Can you reference any academic studies that show a statistically significant increase in Jew hatred?

Or, like, just... any vaguely competentish attempt at proving it's more than just lies, misinformation, and FUD.
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 From:  ANT_THOMAS   17 Jan 2019 20:57 
 To:  Peter (BOUGHTONP)      46 of 200 
42264.46 In reply to 42264.45 
Just have a browse on twitter of what Rachel Riley (of Countdown fame) has been enduring of late and has been highlighting. It exists, it's there, it's not made up and it's not just a few isolated incidents.

https://www.google.com/search?q=anti+semitism+reports+increasing

Yes it exists on both (far) sides and the left have had much more media focus (unfairly in comparison), but that doesn't make it correct.
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 From:  koswix   17 Jan 2019 22:54 
 To:  CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)       47 of 200 
42264.47 In reply to 42264.29 
If it hasn't started yet, read the last message again.

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