Quite possible that we're going to sleepwalk right into a No Deal brexit. She'll survive the confidence vote tomorrow (Tories aren't going to vote against her and risk getting Corbyn, DUP have initially signalled they'll support her), EU aren't going to shift on the offer that's on the table so we're basically fucked on that front.
The only reasonable way out of this that I can see is May calling a second referendum. Everyone (well, a decent majority at least) agrees that No Deal is not a viable option, so perhaps a referendum on May's Deal or Remain? Really don't know where the fuck this is going to end.
I wonder what awful turn of events will happen next. There's still a tiny tiny sliver of hope that someone will find a way to put it into the "we tried but it's not possible without fucking everybody over" bin successfully, ideally with a Corbyn government at the end of that somehow. Don't know how though!
I spent a year and a half working on the millennium bug and then, a few years later, I worked for the main contractor for the rewrite of the Customs and Excise IT systems including the huge SAP based systems that run the UK's tax relationship with the EU.
I watched systems fail over and over using simple time-shifting simulations, so I know the millennium bug was a real problem that would have been a global disaster if billions of pounds and dollars had not been spent all over the world putting it right. When Jacob and Boris dismiss it as an illusion, I seriously doubt their grasp of the issues and maturity as decision makers.
I know that it took over 15 years before the Customs and Excise IT systems even felt like they could do the job and I'm well aware that a nudge can cause queues at ports, because we SAW queues at ports when tiny things went wrong. And that was with the 'friction-less' EU. The idea that these systems can be supplanted at the drop of a hat with some magical technological solution is beyond laughable even if Boris and Jacob know all about IT having successfully installed apps on their iPhones loads of times.
The whole thing is too depressing for words.
Also, the government sneaked through a major change to pensions that will make the poorest married couples significantly poorer (by £thousands) if only one is of pensionable age, knowing that the issue would be overshadowed by the Brexit vote. I feel ashamed to breathe the same air sometimes.
never trust a man in a blue trench coat, never drive a car when you're dead
Is your preference for a Corbyn government just that it will mean no more Tories? Or do you specifically want a Corbyn Labour government over say an alternative leader Labour government?
The no confidence vote will fail because there's not a single Tory or DUP MP who will support it. May will, nominally, consult with the other party leaders, but has clearly set out that she won't support a customs union, which is the minimum that Labour would accept to support her (they'd expect some additional workers' protections too, but those could be finessed). So on Monday she'll return to parliament with a deal that's virtually identical to yesterday's and it'll be comprehensively rejected again.
At that point, she'll propose an extension to Article 50 and the EU will accept. May will probably start to pursue a Norway+ model, pressured by Labour to go for a harder customs union. The EU *might* soften their position a bit, recognising that all the above makes a hard Brexit a genuine possibility.
I am increasingly convinced that the Labour shadow cabinet won't support a second referendum under any circumstances. It's just possible that an extension to Article 50 and the intransigence of the Tory & Labour executives will precipitate the formation of a new, centrist pro-Remain party, but I wouldn't be betting my last tenner on it.
"We all have flaws, and mine is being wicked." James Thurber, The Thirteen Clocks 1951
I mean a specifically Corbyn government, but failing that I'd settle for one built on his policies and manifesto but with whatever personality-vacuum focus-grouped suit figurehead will let the centrists stop whinging about Labour for a few weeks and actually focus on the real bad guys over the other side of the chamber. We need to roll back austerity and start to nationalise shit, pronto.
Moving elsewhere in the discussion there's not a single poll that makes a compelling case that a party on a pro-remain ticket will get anywhere but down, sadly. The way Labour have played this so far is the only possible chance, in my opinion - hedge to the max, let the tories fuck it up, wait for the chance to actually affect things positively. If remain is not possible by then, just by not shooting too much of our foot off. Odds are pretty good that in a second referendum (note, by the way, that the FBPE crowd don't even seem to know what options should be in such a referendum) Leave would win again anyway.
I suppose in the immediate future, following the inevitable failure of the confidence vote, we have to hope May finally shifts these fuckwit 'red lines' that have caused much of the trouble since the referendum anyway.
There isn't much that I don't agree with about that post. However, the huge risk in allowing the Tory party to fuck it up is that it allows the 85% (and I plucked that from the air so no pie charts please - a simple agreement that I am correct will do) of the media controlled by the Tory Party to pursue their narrative about what Corbyn and the Labour party are about. I include the BBC in that seeing as all of the main political correspondents are clearly on the right including Andrew Marr who was a lefty when he thought it would get him laid at university, but now is too stupid to realise that he's happily right of centre.
I picked on Marr because a similar story can be told about Gove, who I just watched in his pomp, strutting and frothing in the no-confidence debate. Gove, of course, was a union activist when he couldn't get his willy into action any other way, but now thinks unions (and Corbyn) are spawn of the devil as set out in his "Idiot's Guide to Becoming Prime Minister". I wanted to watch his speech all the way through, but a bit of sick came up and I had to rush for a glass of water.
May and her red-lines? God knows. She's just invited party-leaders to talks on how they can better agree to her plan. No preconditions other than attending in French-maid costumes and publicly admitting how wrong they were to oppose her.
never trust a man in a blue trench coat, never drive a car when you're dead
I’m just not sure what choice there has been other than watching them fuck it up. It’s only today that May has even offered any cross party talks on it, and you just know they’ll not be in any way productive. If she folds on the red lines then half her own party rebels. Then again, she’s got until December to worry about that now so perhaps there’s a chance!
I think labour and Corbyn have been pretty clear about what they want really; guaranteed rights for EU citizens, close ties, seeking an election most of all but other options to follow now including maybe this fabled second referendum. The right and centre press has reported this terribly and lied throughout, and there seems no way to change that no matter what they do. Even bland old Ed Miliband copped the same kind of shit. So, hope to get in and Levenson 2 those fuckers I suppose, along with the rest of it. Ugh, our own Rendle tweeted a few minutes ago saying any other opposition leader would’ve won the confidence vote today. What, persuaded Tories to vote themselves out of a job and got the DU fucking P onside somehow? I’m almost interested enough to actually ask him how. Reality distortion fields seem powerful these days.
Anyway yeah I’m pretty depressed by it all when I fail in the project of not thinking about it.
There was no chance they'd lose the no confidence vote. Definitely ridiculous to think otherwise. No matter how many Tory MPs voted against the deal, every single one of them wants to be in the party of government.
I'd also like a Corbyn government, or at least did before he effectively became pro-Brexit. Though I do realise he is somewhat sitting on the fence deliberately as a reasonable number of Labour voters and traditionally Labour areas support leaving.
