War & PoliticsBrexit deal nigh or nyet?

  

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 From:  Manthorp   28 May 2019 13:41 
 To:  milko      138 of 200 
42264.138 In reply to 42264.137 
Yes, the 1922 committee has a batshit crazy system in which they poll Party MPs on all the candidates and the one with the lowest score is chucked out. The shortening list is put to MPs every Tuesday and Thursday(?!) until only two are left, and then it's put out to a vote by all members.

As you say, if Johnson gets that far, his win is a given. But the 1922 Committee don't like him, and neither do many MPs - no Remainer Tory would ever vote for him, and neither would any MP who can't countenance the real possibility of a no-deal.

I'd also be really surprised if Osborne's Standard isn't holding something on him, too. So the 'if' in '...if Johnson gets that far' is a real and significant 'if'.
"We all have flaws, and mine is being wicked."
James Thurber, The Thirteen Clocks 1951
 
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 From:  Peter (BOUGHTONP)   28 May 2019 22:47 
 To:  ALL 139 of 200 
42264.139 
With two weeks until nominations close, by endorsement counts Hunt and Gove are the top two front-runners. No idea how popular they are with Conservative membership.

28 Jeremy Hunt
25 Michael Gove
24 Boris Johnson
21 Dominic Raab
12 Sajid Javid
8 Matt Hancock
6 Esther McVey
4 Andrea Leadsom
3 Kit Malthouse
3 Rory Stewart

Kit is another unknown to me, he seems boring but relatively inoffensive. No surprise that he's keeping Rory company at the bottom.


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 From:  Manthorp   29 May 2019 09:07 
 To:  Peter (BOUGHTONP)      140 of 200 
42264.140 In reply to 42264.139 
I've had £40 riding on Gove to be next Tory leader for over a year. They were offering 12:1 at the time and even though I didn't (and don't) think he's likely to win, I thought they'd got the odds wrong so I took a punt.
"We all have flaws, and mine is being wicked."
James Thurber, The Thirteen Clocks 1951
 
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 From:  william (WILLIAMA)   29 May 2019 10:30 
 To:  Peter (BOUGHTONP)      141 of 200 
42264.141 In reply to 42264.139 
Malthouse and Stewart are relative unknowns to me as well. Malthouse loned his name to a Brexit proposal that was supposedly better than Theresa May's or the usual ERG solutions, because instead of Unicorns, the Malthouse Compromise was fuelled with Sooty's oofle-dust. Rory Stewart walked 10 times around the world to be a diplomat or something.

The rest are as repellant a bunch of self-promoting, vain, avaricious*, entitled vermin as you could ever hope to avoid.

*because sometimes greedy just won't do.
never trust a man in a blue trench coat, never drive a car when you're dead
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 From:  milko   29 May 2019 12:30 
 To:  william (WILLIAMA)      142 of 200 
42264.142 In reply to 42264.141 
Stewart is the guy who made up a good stat during an interview.
 
Quote: 
Speaking to presenter Emma Barnett, he claimed 80% of the British public supported the prime minister’s Brexit deal. Pressed by Emma as to where he had got the information, he said: “I’m producing a number to try to illustrate what I believe.” He later added, “I totally apologise and I take that back"


A bit fucking dim to think nobody's gonna call him on saying 80%!
milko
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 From:  william (WILLIAMA)   29 May 2019 13:05 
 To:  milko      143 of 200 
42264.143 In reply to 42264.142 
Oh, that was him! What a twat. So that's a full set of candidates lacking any ability whatsoever to be a Prime Minister (along with any compassion for or understanding of the lives most people live). The addition of Cleverly to the list doesn't change that. What a perfect bit of misnaming btw.
never trust a man in a blue trench coat, never drive a car when you're dead
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 From:  william (WILLIAMA)   29 May 2019 13:18 
 To:  william (WILLIAMA)      144 of 200 
42264.144 In reply to 42264.143 
Anyway, Boris has a date with m'learned friends in due course...
never trust a man in a blue trench coat, never drive a car when you're dead
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 From:  ANT_THOMAS   29 May 2019 13:19 
 To:  milko      145 of 200 
42264.145 In reply to 42264.142 
He's now also the guy who put a video on twitter where he tried to make it look like he was holding his phone and recording it himself, but he wasn't and someone else was. Very odd.
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 From:  CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)    29 May 2019 13:33 
 To:  william (WILLIAMA)      146 of 200 
42264.146 In reply to 42264.144 
Lying ain't a good look, unless you're an aspirational populist.
“you know things are bad when we’re using a show about chernobyl as escapism”
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 From:  Peter (BOUGHTONP)   29 May 2019 22:04 
 To:  Manthorp      147 of 200 
42264.147 In reply to 42264.140 
For some reason I thought you had that on Philip Hammond, though it appears there's no mention of him even possibly standing in this or previous leadership elections.
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 From:  Manthorp   30 May 2019 07:42 
 To:  Peter (BOUGHTONP)      148 of 200 
42264.148 In reply to 42264.147 
Heavens no! They'd have had to offer astronomical odds for me to have taken a punt on him. Even backing Gove was an act of laughable optimism spurred on by greed.
"We all have flaws, and mine is being wicked."
James Thurber, The Thirteen Clocks 1951
 
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 From:  Manthorp   30 May 2019 07:54 
 To:  william (WILLIAMA)      149 of 200 
42264.149 In reply to 42264.141 
Rory Stewart looks as if he was born without a face and has borrowed one of Mick Jagger's old ones, even though it doesn't quite fit.
"We all have flaws, and mine is being wicked."
James Thurber, The Thirteen Clocks 1951
 
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 From:  Peter (BOUGHTONP)   10 Jun 2019 23:36 
 To:  ALL 150 of 200 
42264.150 
Nominations have closed, down from 13 candidates to "just" 10, with Boris as front-runner based on MP public support - three days until the first ballot gives the real numbers. 
64 Boris Johnson
35 Jeremy Hunt
35 Michael Gove
24 Dominic Raab
19 Sajid Javid
14 Matt Hancock
 7 Mark Harper
 6 Esther McVey
 6 Rory Stewart
 5 Andrea Leadsom
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 From:  Manthorp   11 Jun 2019 22:02 
 To:  Peter (BOUGHTONP)      151 of 200 
42264.151 In reply to 42264.150 
I guess Hunt will be the final girl to lose against Johnson.

If the Tories had an ounce of bottle (or imagination) they'd go for Stewart and the (faint) possibility of a cross-party solution.  But they don't.

Meanwhile, the Summer of Gove owes me £40. He can pay me back in crack.
"We all have flaws, and mine is being wicked."
James Thurber, The Thirteen Clocks 1951
 
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 From:  ANT_THOMAS   13 Jun 2019 12:28 
 To:  Manthorp      152 of 200 
42264.152 In reply to 42264.151 
Rory Stewart is just as bad as the rest. Seems much more personable, but his voting record is that of a Tory. Unsurprisingly.

And he said he'd never let no deal happen, yet voted against the bill yesterday to help try and prevent it.
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 From:  CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)    13 Jun 2019 14:31 
 To:  ANT_THOMAS      153 of 200 
42264.153 In reply to 42264.152 
The brinkmanship involved in this exercise is breathtaking, to say the least.
“90% of Canadians have fallen for fake news”
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 From:  Manthorp   13 Jun 2019 20:18 
 To:  ANT_THOMAS      154 of 200 
42264.154 In reply to 42264.152 
Yeah, I wasn't defending his morality, just suggesting that his position on Brexit isn't so far from Labour's (well, Corbyn's) - perhaps close enough to arrive at a cross-party deal.
"We all have flaws, and mine is being wicked."
James Thurber, The Thirteen Clocks 1951
 
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 From:  Peter (BOUGHTONP)   18 Jun 2019 23:07 
 To:  ANT_THOMAS      155 of 200 
42264.155 In reply to 42264.152 
> Rory Stewart is just as bad as the rest. Seems much more personable, but his voting record is that of a Tory. Unsurprisingly.

Whilst I don't want to disagree with any of that, he has the highest parliament attendance (79%) and most rebellions (15 times, 0.7%) of the remaining candidates. (Although the now eliminated Dominic Raab had 92% attendance and 25/1.2% rebellions.). Rory also seemed to present himself well in the C4 debate the other night (resulting in a doubling of his votes), meaning second place might not be guaranteed to be Hunt. 

126 (+12) Boris Johnson
 46 ( +3) Jeremy Hunt
 41 ( +4) Michael Gove
 37 (+18) Rory Stewart
 33 (+10) Sajid Javid

So, yeah three years of Boris, but I wonder to what degree the opinion polls currently putting Conservatives in 4th place will bounce back if he manages to rip the UK out of the EU, and to what degree the rise/return of Lib Dems and surge of Green support will be a factor in 2022.
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 From:  milko   19 Jun 2019 09:38 
 To:  Peter (BOUGHTONP)      156 of 200 
42264.156 In reply to 42264.155 
What is nuts (and yet somehow not surprising) about all this is the apparent liking for Stewart among centrist remainer types. I mean, let's face it nothing he's saying here is likely to be true and he'll go and row back any promises about improving society, he's a Tory and that's a given. But even that aside, he's pretty much going "I will get May's Europe deal through" which everybody on both sides of the debate hated enough to see fail numerous times. Why is anybody even slightly interested? 

I do hope the country isn't too far ruined by the time these clowns have finished fucking it up. And I hope people don't start falling for this Lib Dem bullshit because jesus christ they'd jump back in with the conservatives at the drop of a hat if it got them into coalition again, brexit or not. 
milko
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 From:  ANT_THOMAS   19 Jun 2019 11:16 
 To:  Peter (BOUGHTONP)      157 of 200 
42264.157 In reply to 42264.155 
I agree on a lot of that. Came across the best on the C4 debate, though not as good on the BBC last night.

He seemed to be the only one using even basic logic during the debate. Can't reduce taxes because that will reduce spending. Tories want reduced taxes, it's that simple.

But kinda as Milko has said, his Brexit offer is the current WA. That's been rejected by most groups of people across the Brexit spectrum. Seems a pointless offering of what we already have.
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