War & PoliticsDump Trump

 

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 From:  CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)  
 To:  Harry (HARRYN)     
41641.85 In reply to 41641.80 
I think revenge against bullying *may be* a factor in *some* of the domestic US mass shootings, but unquestionably the main factor is the ubiquity and easy access to guns. I believe that terrorism is indeed a motivation underlying the staging of these spectacular acts, clearly intended to garner as much publicity as possible. The US needs to look at gun culture as an extremely dangerous and insidious form of terrorism within American society that thus far has inflicted far more death and destruction than any external threat.

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"I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose any voters"
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 From:  fixrman  
 To:  ANT_THOMAS     
41641.86 In reply to 41641.82 
Quote: 
When the white Christians shoot a place up and talk about God

I'd like to see your face on that one. I don't think I have ever heard a bigger bullshite statement in my life. So let's see your source on that whopper. Last mass shooting I remember God being mentioned, the shooter targeted Christians.

Daft.

You need to read about some real studies on threat-assessment data instead of making crap up in your mind.

 
  Did you ever see such a messed up situation in your whole life, son?
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 From:  Linn (INDYLS)  
 To:  milko     
41641.87 In reply to 41641.77 
Ah yes, It appears I misread, my mistake :)
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 From:  ANT_THOMAS  
 To:  fixrman     
41641.88 In reply to 41641.86 
I think it's only fair that I read up on some mass-shootings, this might take a few days because there's loads. I'm looking specifically at 2015 mass shootings.

I've only read info on the last 7 of 2015 so far. Already it's clear that I'm so glad there's only a small amount of guns over here because 6 of those look like shootings due to petty arguments, including a shooting at a vigil of a shooting?!?!?!?

The other one was a hate crime targeting gay people, I am going to label that as religious.

Maybe I need a spreadsheet, but the trend so far does look like arguments and shootings at bars. No guns would just result in a bit of fisticuffs and people going on their way, not bullet wounds.
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 From:  fixrman  
 To:  ANT_THOMAS     
41641.89 In reply to 41641.88 
Quote: 
I think it's only fair that I read up on some mass-shootings, this might take a few days because there's loads. I'm looking specifically at 2015 mass shootings.

I agree that you should read up and also that there's loads. Problem is, the statistics - without arguing about the fact that there are a lot of them, which is beyond dispute - are skewed because of bias or positioning.

I'll be glad to continue the discussion, but I am not sure the Dump Trump thread is the best place for it. There's so much more ammo available for Trump, we are sidetracking and hijacking that discussion.
 

Quote: 
The other one was a hate crime targeting gay people, I am going to label that as religious.

I'd disagree with that unless it can be proved that the targeting is from a pure religious standpoint; most violent opposition of gays doesn't stem from religious people unless they are liars. Truly religious people dislike the "sin" (as they view it from their particular standpoint or religious flavour) but love the "sinner" nonetheless. I put sin and sinner in quotes to separate from my particular viewpoint and make it generic.
 

Quote: 
but the trend so far does look like arguments and shootings at bars. No guns would just result in a bit of fisticuffs and people going on their way, not bullet wounds.

I guess it depends where the data comes from, and what is used to determine the parameters. In the U.S., a mass shooting is defined at 4 or more injuries or deaths, not including the shooter. I think you are going to find it a difficult slog, because [your] conclusion of fisticuffs being the only result discounts the possibility of stabbings, blunt object use, knives, bottles, strangulation, high heels used as a weapon (a woman killed her boyfriend with her killer heels); lack of bullet wounds is not better in the terms of overall violence, but I would assume you are going to use that to support your theory that all guns should be outlawed.

I'll state again, it isn't going to happen in the U.S., no matter how impassioned a the plea made or the data gathered. No one is taking my guns, period.

What may happen, though, is a better effort made at determining who is at risk for perpetrating violent acts, mass or otherwise. They do it because they are delusional, ignored - generally social outcasts who feel like they don't matter or nobody likes them.

I mentioned once before that over 60% of gun deaths in this country are suicides. Sometimes this number gets buried in the statistics when people are trying to make the point that guns should be outlawed. Well, I have known a half a dozen people at least who committed suicide, out of them only one killed himself with a gun. One hung himself, three girls took overdoses and one drank himself to death. The guy who killed himself with the gun tried to drink himself to death, but it didn't work. I suspect had he not had a gun he would have found another way, because he was severely depressed and his family ignored him; I was too far away from him to be of any help, and I am sorry to say that I didn't realise his family would turn their backs on him after I told them that Brook was not well.

I think you are going to have to look at a more broad spectrum of data than 2015, unfortunately.





 

 
  Did you ever see such a messed up situation in your whole life, son?
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 From:  Harry (HARRYN)  
 To:  ALL
41641.90 
Entering into the first two stages of the primary elections, I can't help but look at some candidate strengths and weaknesses as they enter Iowa and New Hampshire.  Of course this is just my own, amateur opinion, but I did grow up in the midwest, and I lived in IA for a few years while in college.

The IA caucus is not a general voters primary, it is very much a strange, old fashion town hall meeting style, chaotic event, with great organizing in the background.  This organizing effort actually is more important than how people intend to vote when they go there.

Trump Strengths (as they related to the IA caucus system)
- Wall street hates him, so this makes him interesting to people in IA, as they don't really like people from NY and especially from wall street.
- The people of IA tend to be moderates and while religious, not so verbal about their religion like people from the south (Cruz )
- People in IA feel pretty screwed over by both parties, so there is no love for the party extremes.
- He has not taken any money from the Koch brothers
- His team is well organized and really understands high tech marketing
- He says that he is pro - second amendment


Trump Weakness
- He is from NY, and honestly, that is a huge liability for any candidate running for President in any state - except NY
- He is a bit of an open bully, and this does always go over that well
- He has openly complained about workers making too much money
- People are not entirely sure that he is really pro second amendment
 
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 From:  Manthorp  
 To:  Harry (HARRYN)     
41641.91 In reply to 41641.90 
It seems like a tortuous process.  The UK general elections are tedious enough (even when there's a surprise at the end, like the 2015 election), but the US presidential elections seem bloody interminable.

Are the Senate elections synchronised (or anti-synchronised) with the White House race?

"We all have flaws, and mine is being wicked."
James Thurber, The Thirteen Clocks 1951
 
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 From:  Harry (HARRYN)  
 To:  ALL
41641.92 
Cruz Strengths - as they relate to IA
- He is not Trump
- Appeals to the "strongly openly religious crowd
- He is not from NY
- There are a fair number of Hispanics in IA and he is trying to appeal to this group
- Extraordinarily large number of very organized team members working every detail with a very sophisticated electoral simulation software package.
- Pro - gun ownership, a virtual requirement to win in IA, because people believe that if you don't respect "one" right of the individual, then you can't be trusted to respect any of them.

Weakness
- He is from Texas, and while that used to be OK, after a few too many presidents from there, it is now a questionable heritage.
- The perception is that he is "just barely a native born American".  Since it was Canada, still might work.
- He is from a strong oil state, and was foolish enough to tell people in IA that corn ethanol is a bad idea.  No matter your opinion, you don't say that out loud in IA.  It is sort of like telling a woman that she is stupid, ugly, and poorly dressed - then asking her out on a date. 
- He shut down the entire government of the US over a minor issue, just for the publicity
- He does not understand the difference between how the republican party leaders think, and how republican voters think
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 From:  Harry (HARRYN)  
 To:  Manthorp     
41641.93 In reply to 41641.91 
quote: Manthorp
It seems like a tortuous process.  The UK general elections are tedious enough (even when there's a surprise at the end, like the 2015 election), but the US presidential elections seem bloody interminable.

Are the Senate elections synchronised (or anti-synchronised) with the White House race?

Yes it is, in fact, the election cycle actually never ends.  The day after the election, the next one begins.

Presidential term is 4 years
Senate term is 6 years
Congressional term is 2 years

I think that there is also a setup so that only some of them are up for election at the same time, so that you don't risk ending up with a congress full of people who don't understand how it works.  Imagine if somehow you had all new people and no one knew the rules - pretty crazy.

The 2 year congress term is particularly problematic from a corruption perspective.  They have to spend nearly all of their time fund raising for the next election, so they are inherently open to being influenced by someone with a willingness to donate to the campaign fund.  It doesn't help that if they don't spend the money on the campaign, they can keep it - tax free.

My education was in chemical engineering and I am more of a business man, so don't be surprised if you see errors in how the offices are setup.


 

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 From:  Harry (HARRYN)  
 To:  ALL
41641.94 
Rubio Strengths - as they related to IA
- He is Hispanic
- He isn't Trump
- He is not from Texas or NY
- Follows the party line on topics
- Dresses professionally

Weakness
- He is actually really mean to other Hispanics.  As soon as you move away from his background, you wonder why anyone who is Hispanic would vote for him.
- He is stuck in the cold war era of holding a grudge against Cuba, and a lot of Americans think this policy is ridiculous and counter productive
- Foolish tax ideas
- His team is not nearly as organized as other teams
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 From:  Harry (HARRYN)  
 To:  ALL
41641.95 
Chris Christie Stengths
- He is a good at running a campaign
- He says the right things
- Has good financial backing
- He is good at "strong - arm" tactics

Weakness
- No one believes him
- He is from New Jersey, possibly an even more politically corrupt state than NY
- New Jersey has some of the most restrictive gun laws in the US, and is known for trampling on peoples rights, and wiping out businesses just for fun.

 
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 From:  Harry (HARRYN)  
 To:  ALL
41641.96 
Rand Paul - Strengths in IA
- Conservative, but very much appeals to moderates and the political center of the US
- Solid tax plan
- Does not say crazy things
- His father is Rand Paul, who is well known in US politics and had (has) a strong following
- Rand Paul surprised everyone in past elections with his organizing skills in IA, really pulled off a stealth campaign.
- Electable in the general election

Weakness
- Lacks funding because wall street does not like him
- Does not have extremists views, so he does not appeal to those with extremist positions.
- Professional, but might not be flashy enough
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 From:  Harry (HARRYN)  
 To:  ALL
41641.97 
Clinton Strengths
- Tireless campaigner
- Very strong political ties both domestically and internationally
- Most likely, she would be very effective at what she sets out to do, no matter if you like it or not.
- Strongly tied to Bloomberg and the NY financial markets, so well backed by money and media
- She is a woman, and really expects most women to vote for her, no matter of their political affiliation.
- She has the "super delegates" already tied up, so Sanders would need to win by an astronomical amount in the primaries, and then could still loose the party nomination
- Very strong ties to the pro-Israel lobby, so she can use this to her advantage on most candidates and political opposition.

Weakness
- She is a former Senator from NY, never a good think in middle America
- She doesn't really relate well to the average person
- Her positions tend to be very extreme, you either really agree with her, or you really disagree.  She will have a hard time appealing to moderates.

I am not really sure how significant the past issues of email servers and the Benghazi incident really are among Dem voters. A few ex Marines that I know are really upset at these incidents, but they probably didn't like her for other reasons already.
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 From:  Harry (HARRYN)  
 To:  ALL
41641.98 
Bernie Sanders Strengths in IA
- He is not Clinton
- The financial markets hate him
- His policies are aimed straight toward people in the 17  - 30 year old range, who are a really disenfranchised group in the US.
- He is Jewish, so he does not have to worry about being attacked the the pro-Israel lobby.  Nonetheless, he keeps this to a moderate level, so his religion is not hurting him like being Mormon hurt Romney.
- Very well planned out campaign, and he is good at working as an under dog role.
- Draws from voter distrust that Clinton was the "obvious party choice".
- He is much more likely to respect the rights of the individual than Clinton, although not perfectly, at least better.

Weakness
- Age / old while guy problem with connecting with voters
- Wall street really hates him.  They hate him so much, that Bloomberg is considering to enter the Presidential race as an independent party, for the sole reason of making sure that he does not become President.
- Kind of a wild spender with very expensive ideas.  In the end, it won't matter, because the Senate and Congress are pretty conservative right now, so many of the ideas won't go through.
- Bill Clinton can still pull a crowd into a campaign, both primaries and general election.  Sanders needs to be very careful to not attack Clinton in the primary, or risk loosing the largest party fund raiser support.
- Biden wants to have a major role under Clinton in the next Presidency, either chief of staff, or VP.  If Sanders does extremely well in the primary, but not enough to win the nomination, it will be very hard to not give him the VP slot.  For that reason, Biden will be anti - Sanders.
- Obama wants to be nominated to the UN or Supreme court, and Clinton will do this in exchange for support. 
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 From:  Harry (HARRYN)  
 To:  ALL
41641.99 
And - just to keep life exciting, the people of IA have learned to have some "fun" with this over burdening election process and the polls.

They take great pride in pulling jokes on pollsters by telling them different viewpoints and opinions, week to week, just to mess them up and see what the latest poll results show.

Right now, the election simulations show that in the Trump vs. Cruz portion in IA, the winner will be determined by how much it snows.

That is why I suggest to people that they don't get too excited about it all.
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 From:  fixrman  
 To:  Manthorp     
41641.100 In reply to 41641.91 
Quote: 
US presidential elections seem bloody interminable.

Why, oh why! Why can't we give them 120 days to bloviate and then VOTE already?

I am tired of the Trump, Clinton, Cruz, Sanders, O'Malley, Rubio, bullshite. None of them will ever do half of what they promise, and when called on it they will say they were misquoted.

 

Quote: 
Are the Senate elections synchronised (or anti-synchronised) with the White House race?


Google is your friend.

 
  Did you ever see such a messed up situation in your whole life, son?
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 From:  fixrman  
 To:  Harry (HARRYN)     
41641.101 In reply to 41641.93 
Quote: 
My education was in chemical engineering and I am more of a business man, so don't be surprised if you see errors in how the offices are setup.

I kinda thought so, given your overly simplistic commentaries on the candidates. I found it amusing that you wrote:

 

Quote: 
- He says the right things

about Chris Christie. He does not say the right things, such as when he told someone critical of his recent handling of a storm in New Jersey, in areas previously damaged by Sandy, "What do you want me to do, go in there with a mop?"

You also wrote that nobody believes him (Christie). Now, if a guy always says the right things, who in their right mind wouldn't believe him?

 

Quote: 
The perception is that he is "just barely a native born American".  Since it was Canada, still might work.

If Obama, whose birthplace is still quite nebulous, can get elected - why should it matter where Cruz was born?

Harry, Congress is a bicameral legislature; it consists of the Senate and House of Representatives, When one says Congress, it means both Houses. There are 435 Representatives, 100 Senators and 6 non-voting members.

Trust me, they all understand how it works. That's the problem.

 
  Did you ever see such a messed up situation in your whole life, son?
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 From:  ANT_THOMAS  
 To:  fixrman     
41641.102 In reply to 41641.101 
Quote: 
If Obama, whose birthplace is still quite nebulous, can get elected - why should it matter where Cruz was born?
Of course people still don't believe he's born in the USA :'D
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 From:  fixrman  
 To:  ANT_THOMAS     
41641.103 In reply to 41641.102 
I'm sure he was born right next to Bruce Springsteen.

That was a deliberate poke at Harry who indicated that Cruz is "just barely a native born American".
 
  Did you ever see such a messed up situation in your whole life, son?
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 From:  ANT_THOMAS  
 To:  fixrman     
41641.104 In reply to 41641.103 
Just checked out the Cruz thing.

Not sure why there's muddied waters. If he was entitled to US Citizenship from birth (seems he was) then it looks like that's fine, is that correct?
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