I think the problem is that you're talking like an astrologer (or, worse, an economist). You're not making any specific claims.

You're all like "Woooooo, wooooo... I see in the mists that there will be an earthquake along the pacific rim of fire at some point in the future.... wooooo... wooooo ... the spirits are leaving me now, I grow weary <dramatic slump>".

How about, right, instead of this, you make a thread which you update with clear predictions in this form:

There will be an earthquake in PLACE on DATE of MAGNITUDE MAGNITUDE give or take ACCURACY MARGIN and I am PERCENTAGE OF CERTAINTY% certain of this.

That and nothing more. None of this 'earthquakes are actually caused by tuna burps' nonsense. Save that for another thread. Just where, when, size and likelihood.

Then someone who understand stats can work out how well you're doing, perhaps compared to the pros.

I think that means he's trying to mate with you?

It would certainly explain the "Just where, when, size and likelihood" sentence.

(giggle)

Heh, When I saw Stephane Geralli speak earlier this year he said that an economist's job was to make astrologers look good.

I heard it from the West Wing :$

He probably nicked it from the West Wing. I'm pretty sure he'd gone on about how great the West Wing was just before that :$

Well he's right. The West Wing is fucking great.

Not really seen it :$

 

I did like the bit after he (the guy) said the above, where he told a room full of CEOs etc. that, basically, we're all fucked, regardless of Scottish Independence.

If you don't make predictions what use are you to the New Zealand Emergency Council (an organisation which google seems to think doesn't exist (is it the secret world government? I understand that they wouldn't have a website))?

If you're not making predictions, what is it you're doing?

When you say 'somebody intervened' to calm the area around the Philippines, what/who exactly do you mean?

Hijacking the thread somewhat; if one could gather huge quantities of people's best guesses/gut predictions at various aspects of the future, would it prove useful? Would the aggregation of hundreds of thousands of predictions tap into some kind of collective subconscious? If not for earthquake prediction and its like, then maybe for events predominantly determined by human action? When Greece will be forced to leave the Euro, for instance?

 

Or would such a database just deliver muzzy, probably gloomy, generalities?

I think the point is more that if you're making predictions, can you predict next week's National Lottery numbers? Do something useful, init?

I suspect it'd be all very interesting for a while, but then, if you're familiar with your Dick, it'd go all pear-shaped and leave you fighting for your life and questioning reality and all that.

I would say that my dick was more parsnip-shaped.

How can earthquake predictions be taken as terrorism?

If the feds say something bad.

Depends whether you define "terrorism" as "organised anti-government violence" or as simply "making people scared"?

If you convince people there's going to be an earthquake, they probably behave similarly to if you say there's going to be a bomb?