General Election 2019 - Teh Forum

<body> <div id="header"> <span class="left"> <span class="back"><a href="lthread_list.php?webtag=DEFAULT"><span class="image mobile_back" title="Back"></span></a></span> <span class="image mobile_logo" title="Beehive Forum Logo"></span> </span> <ul> <li> <a class="reply_all" href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42505.0&return_msg=42505.67"> <span class="image mobile_reply_all"></span><span class="text">Reply to All</span> </a> </li> <li> <a class="navigation" href="#"> <span class="image mobile_navigation"></span><span class="text">Show messages</span> </a> </li> <li> <a class="main" href="#"><span class="image mobile_menu" title="Menu"></span> </a> </li> </ul> </div> <div class="menu main"> <ul> <li><a href="lthread_list.php?webtag=DEFAULT">Messages</a></li> <li><a href="lpm.php?webtag=DEFAULT">Inbox</a></li> <li><a href="lsearch.php?webtag=DEFAULT">Search</a></li> <li><a href="llogon.php?webtag=DEFAULT">Login</a></li> </ul> </div> <div class="menu navigation"><a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42505.1">1–10</a>…<a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42505.41">41–50</a><a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42505.51">51–60</a><a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42505.61">61–70</a><a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42505.71">71–80</a>…<a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42505.91">91–94</a></div> <div id="page_content"> <h3 class="thread_title"><a href="index.php?webtag=DEFAULT&amp;msg=42505.67">General Election 2019</a> </h3> <div id="messages" data-navigation="42505_67_94_10"> <a name="a42505_67"></a><div class="message" id="message_42505_67"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: Manthorp<span class="message_time">16 Dec 2019 11:55</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: milko <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 16 Dec 2019 14:30"></span></span> <span class="message_count">67 of 94</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42505.67">42505.67</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42505.66">42505.66</a></div> <div class="message_body"> <div class="quotetext"><strong>Quote:</strong> </div> <div class="quote">...set a date for your own government to be most likely weakened by the PR followup</div> I think that's one of the major impediments to change without cross-party support. As soon as any party starts to believe it could command a majority, the inclination to introduce a fairer system wanes fast. And if they're <em>in</em> power, all the more. Cf. what Smiffy just said re: Canadia. I imagine that any smaller parties offering a pact to support an electoral reform-supporting Labour party (or electoral reform-supporting Tory party, I guess, should hell freeze over) would try to bake the commitment in before they found themselves in the position to break their word.</div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42505.67&return_msg=42505.67" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42505.67"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a42505_68"></a><div class="message" id="message_42505_68"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: william (WILLIAMA)<span class="message_time">16 Dec 2019 12:43</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: milko <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 16 Dec 2019 14:30"></span></span> <span class="message_count">68 of 94</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42505.68">42505.68</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42505.63">42505.63</a></div> <div class="message_body"> I see Rebecca Long-Bailey's name is being touted by "senior Labour figures" (so they say and I'm relying on the accuracy of press gossip which is probably wrong). I think she would be a mistake for purely practical reasons. The sad truth is that we live in an age where competence and "strength" are disproportionately linked to performance in front of a camera, or at least in front of a reporter and RL-B comes across as a bit charisma-free and easily flustered. I'm not picking on her in particular. The Labour ranks are packed with people seriously in need of coaching in interview and presentation skills. They probably won't bother though, which is sad, because there seems to be a prevailing myth that somehow their essential goodness will shine though when all that shines through is bewilderment and lack of preparation. <br /> <br /> As for and brexit mess: I agree. The Tory party will simply blame everybody except themselves. It's a manoeuvre that comes naturally to them. I also believe that Johnson will move to entrench the Tory position with boundary changes, voter ID, possibly crippling the BBC and removing Channel 4's charter, changes to the law so that Government legislation and decisions cannot be challenged as they have been over the last year or two.<br /> <br /> PR? Absolutely, but I don't see it happening. In fact, as an alternative, I would vote for a formal and permanent coalition between all the parties to the left of* the Tories, but since tactical voting has been a bit of a non-starter and the left and right of the Labour party hate each other more than than the Tories, that's a non-starter too. <br /> <br /> *although the left/centre/right metaphor shouldn't do too much work</div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42505.68&return_msg=42505.67" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42505.68"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a42505_69"></a><div class="message" id="message_42505_69"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: Manthorp<span class="message_time">16 Dec 2019 14:33</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: william (WILLIAMA) <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 16 Dec 2019 14:33"></span></span> <span class="message_count">69 of 94</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42505.69">42505.69</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42505.67#a42505_68" target="_self">42505.68</a></div> <div class="message_body"> <div class="quotetext"><strong>Quote:</strong> </div> <div class="quote">I see Rebecca Long-Bailey's name is being touted by "senior Labour figures" (so they say and I'm relying on the accuracy of press gossip which is probably wrong)</div> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/15/labour-leadership-race-begins-as-senior-figures-back-rebecca-long-bailey">McDonnell is doing his best to promote her</a> and his endorsement, whilst Marmitey, will marshall a lot of £3ers. Jess Phillips would be my preference for these populist times: she's quick-witted, a media natural and manages an easy 'of the people' vibe. Her centralist position would persuade a lot of the old skool Labour ex-members back into the fold. I also think she'd run rings around Johnson at the dispatch box. But she's anathema to the Corbyn camp, so I wonder whether that's unrealistic.</div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42505.69&return_msg=42505.67" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42505.69"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a42505_70"></a><div class="message" id="message_42505_70"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: milko<span class="message_time">16 Dec 2019 14:38</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: william (WILLIAMA) <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 16 Dec 2019 14:39"></span></span> <span class="message_count">70 of 94</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42505.70">42505.70</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42505.67#a42505_68" target="_self">42505.68</a></div> <div class="message_body"> I agree completely - I don't know enough about the candidates (and still, they're not official candidates even yet) but Long-Bailey does seem likely to mean we go through the whole thing again like Groundhog Day.<br /> <br /> A PR coalition I just can't see, ultimately the Lib Dems are not nearly as cosy and 'left' as they present themselves, which is why they're happier going into coalition with the Tories and even when they're not doing that seem to "accidentally" enable them anyway through dipshit decision-making. So that leaves Labour with the nationalist parties and the Greens, pretty much. Is that enough, if it could happen? I suppose whatever Farage's mob call themselves this week might be on board since they'd stand a great chance of some seats in this new world.<br /> <br /> Some temporary electoral reform coalition promise would be interesting. I suspect it'd be easily batted aside in the campaign by the Tories as being weak and indecisive etc though. Especially if the persuading was done as limply as AV or Remain again.</div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42505.70&return_msg=42505.67" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42505.70"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a42505_71"></a><div class="message" id="message_42505_71"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: milko<span class="message_time">16 Dec 2019 14:41</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: Manthorp <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 16 Dec 2019 15:13"></span></span> <span class="message_count">71 of 94</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42505.71">42505.71</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42505.67#a42505_69" target="_self">42505.69</a></div> <div class="message_body"> Phillips is certainly anathema to me. I don't see myself as Corbynite particularly but I guess I'm from that side of the party. I mean, Murdoch rags like the Times are promoting tweets that she should be next leader, so presumably the conservatives would be very happy to see her in charge, that ought to be enough alone to put many off.<br /> <br /> I find it hard to imagine forgiving her some of the shit she's come out with in the past few years; I'm thinking particularly her comments about Dianne Abbot but plenty else besides. Strikes me as a greasy opportunist with little underneath to back up the bluster. Maybe that's more successful now in these De Pfeffel times but I'm unhappy at the idea of giving in to it.</div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42505.71&return_msg=42505.67" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42505.71"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a42505_72"></a><div class="message" id="message_42505_72"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: Manthorp<span class="message_time">16 Dec 2019 15:31</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: milko <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 16 Dec 2019 15:51"></span></span> <span class="message_count">72 of 94</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42505.72">42505.72</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42505.67#a42505_71" target="_self">42505.71</a></div> <div class="message_body"> It's all pretty academic anyway, as I reckon Long-Bailey's already been anointed.<br /> <br /> Populism dominates the electoral agenda, and I can see no reason why that is going to change. Indeed, if you read Goodwin & Eatwell's (dry, even-handed, ultimately horrifying) book on populism, they are of the opinion that it's only going to grow. With the best will in the world, Long-Bailey is no populist and would probably - and, I dare say, rightly - be proud of that. But she'll never lead Labour to victory.<br /> <br /> I think we could be looking at a decade in the wilderness unless something extraordinary happens. It's always possible that a Long-Bailey stitch-up might provoke something extraordinary. We live in interesting times.</div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42505.72&return_msg=42505.67" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42505.72"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a42505_73"></a><div class="message" id="message_42505_73"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: milko<span class="message_time">16 Dec 2019 15:55</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: Manthorp <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 16 Dec 2019 20:01"></span></span> <span class="message_count">73 of 94</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42505.73">42505.73</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42505.67#a42505_72" target="_self">42505.72</a></div> <div class="message_body"> I think there's plenty of time left in the process yet, I'm not sure Long-Bailey is so nailed on. But we shall see. <br /> <br /> We are indeed recipients of that famous curse about interesting times, huh. I do think Labour are going to have to pick a hard path now between pragmatic media-friendly stuff and pure principles. I may be wrong but feel like the media deck is so stacked against them that it's futile chasing the former too hard, they need to find alternative ways of persuading people about the latter.</div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42505.73&return_msg=42505.67" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42505.73"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a42505_74"></a><div class="message" id="message_42505_74"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: Kenny J (WINGNUTKJ)<span class="message_time">16 Dec 2019 16:41</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: milko <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 16 Dec 2019 16:52"></span></span> <span class="message_count">74 of 94</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42505.74">42505.74</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42505.67#a42505_73" target="_self">42505.73</a></div> <div class="message_body"> The thing is, what does "media-friendly" even look like these days? The entire media sphere is struggling to adapt to the post-print/post-broadcast world, and it seems that the non-traditional means of consumption, such as social media advertising, are being heavily weaponised by the right. They're controlling the narrative by fair means and foul, and no amount of solid principles can stand up to it when people don't even realise how much they're being manipulated.</div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42505.74&return_msg=42505.67" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42505.74"> <span class="rating">+1/1</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a42505_75"></a><div class="message" id="message_42505_75"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: milko<span class="message_time">16 Dec 2019 16:59</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: Kenny J (WINGNUTKJ) <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 16 Dec 2019 17:12"></span></span> <span class="message_count">75 of 94</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42505.75">42505.75</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42505.67#a42505_74" target="_self">42505.74</a></div> <div class="message_body"> I agree, but there's still a zillion Guardian (etc) columnists filing opinions like "We need someone like David Milliband" for some reason.<br /> <br /> Instead of Leveson 2 we're going to lose what little the first one achieved now too. I don't have any kind of answer to this one at the moment.</div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42505.75&return_msg=42505.67" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42505.75"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a42505_76"></a><div class="message" id="message_42505_76"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: Kenny J (WINGNUTKJ)<span class="message_time">16 Dec 2019 17:37</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: milko <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 16 Dec 2019 18:13"></span></span> <span class="message_count">76 of 94</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42505.76">42505.76</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=42505.67#a42505_75" target="_self">42505.75</a></div> <div class="message_body"> > there's still a zillion Guardian (etc) columnists filing opinions like "We need someone like David Milliband" for some reason.<br /> <br /> That's OK -the people being targeted by the nefarious social media tactics probably aren't reading the Guardian, and aren't going to vote for him regardless, but probably not for the reasons the Guardian columnists think. If Labour want to come back from the abyss, they need to look at why so many so-called "safe" Labour seats turned out not to be safe after all.<br /> <br /> I'm still trying to get my head round it all myself, but it really does seem that Corbyn was absolute poison to people across a wide and diverse range of demographics. The IRA stuff stuck. The Hamas stuff stuck. The scruffiness stuck. The not watching the Queen's Speech probably stuck. The fence-sitting on Brexit meant neither side trusted him. The fact that he's a beardy throwback to some kind of '70s TV sitcom version of Labour with a wee cap and an allotment.The belief that Labour's financial policies are unworkable stuck. People STILL don't seem to understand how tax bands work. His attitude to Scotland and the SNP meant that up here, I saw plenty of Facebook posts from people voting SNP urging their English friends to vote Labour.<br /> <br /> My Facebook feed was filled with lots and lots of people who were very enthusiastically pro-Corbyn, but if I dipped into Boomerspace*, all kinds of anti-Corbyn stuff was cropping up, organically or otherwise.<br /> <br /> *I figure there needs to be a term for the bits of social media that are occupied by the less technically savvy. I mean, we've all been at it since long before social media was even a thing, but we are a tiny majority, and there's a huge parallel world of crappy Facebook "share if you agree" posts and people who actually read the comments under newspaper articles and people who share stuff about suspicious vans to their local area's Facebook groups, and all that kind of shite, and if we grew up thinking that "cyberspace" was kind of a rubbish term of t'interwebs back in the early 2000s, then it follows that "Boomerspace" is a perfectly acceptable term for what I'm describing. Mainly because when I thought about calling it "The Gammonsphere", I did a bit of a dry boak.</div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=42505.76&return_msg=42505.67" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="42505.76"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div></div> <div class="message_page_footer"> <ul> <li class="right_col"><form accept-charset="utf-8" method="get" action="lmessages.php" target="_self"><input type="hidden" name="webtag" id="webtag" class="bhinputtext" value="DEFAULT" dir="ltr" /><input type="hidden" name="msg" id="msg" class="bhinputtext" value="42505.77" dir="ltr" /><input type="submit" name="submit" id="keep_reading" value="Keep reading…" class="button" /></form></li> </ul> </div> </div> </body>