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Brexit deal nigh or nyet?
From: CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)
4 Sep 2019 09:28
To: william (WILLIAMA)
178 of 200
42264.178
In reply to
42264.176
The vicious is getting old, beginning to look more like helpless thrashing about and self-harming. What chances do you give the "people vs parliament" shtick?
From: william (WILLIAMA)
4 Sep 2019 10:07
To: CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)
179 of 200
42264.179
In reply to
42264.178
It's a hard one to call. H L Mencken wrote "No one in this world, so far as I know ... has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people." The point is that this has moved far from a question of rational argument about what is best for the UK and when we're talking about how individual psychology translates into mass action and choices then who really knows?
I think Johnson has probably lost it for many Tories, but then again, there are a lot of them that emerge into the light when an election is called. And for most of them voting Tory is a religious matter. For many more, they will simply be unaware of events and as long as the Sun and the Daily Mail bray at them that BoJo is good, they'll support him. I mean, who can believe the insanity of Jacob Rees Mogg being portrayed as a Man of the People? A multi-millionaire member of the landed-gentry whose every move and utterance displays contempt for
the people.
From: Manthorp
4 Sep 2019 10:43
To: william (WILLIAMA)
180 of 200
42264.180
In reply to
42264.179
The key problem with a pre 31 October election for Johnson's government is that the Brexit Party (so-called) will threaten to stand against them unless they adopt a no-deal Brexit policy; but if they do adopt such a policy, they will lose a small, but significant chunk of the pro-Brexit, anti-no-deal constituency. Either way they lose votes. Furthermore, nobody believes that a no-deal crash-out will be without substantial collateral damage, including damage to business, to jobs and to health & life, which will be a long term electoral liability.
Best bets for the Tories might be either to re-introduce the Withdrawal Agreement, ideally with cosmetic tweaks, but failing that, as-is, and hope that sufficient MPs are now bricking it that the balance of voting changes: or, to lose a vote of no confidence and hand the whole sorry mess over to a GNU which will be just as hamstrung as any one-party government.
From: william (WILLIAMA)
4 Sep 2019 11:19
To: Manthorp
181 of 200
42264.181
In reply to
42264.180
Quote:
nobody believes that a no-deal crash-out will be without substantial collateral damage
I wish I shared your faith in our electorate.
From: milko
4 Sep 2019 15:48
To: william (WILLIAMA)
182 of 200
42264.182
In reply to
42264.181
It's not even just that, they think it's
worth it
(and presumably that it won't affect them personally so much) somehow. To "get it over with" as though No Deal wouldn't be just the beginning of a colossal fucking mess for the next several decades.
Tories helping a lot by being impressively incompetent but labour played a blinder yesterday and today. I have a tiny sliver of optimism.
From: william (WILLIAMA)
4 Sep 2019 15:56
To: milko
183 of 200
42264.183
In reply to
42264.182
I dare say that if you were a fund manager with a business in, I dunno, Ireland, there's a great deal of money to be made by short-selling shares in UK industries that rely on the EU.
Message 42264.184 was deleted
From: Peter (BOUGHTONP)
4 Sep 2019 21:16
To: ALL
185 of 200
42264.185
In reply to
42264.175
Seems like lots happened/happening - where can I find a good (but concise) summary of everything?
From: Manthorp
4 Sep 2019 21:49
To: Peter (BOUGHTONP)
186 of 200
42264.186
In reply to
42264.185
Depends how granular you want it. Guardian politics live is pretty good moment to moment.
From: CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)
4 Sep 2019 22:30
To: Peter (BOUGHTONP)
187 of 200
42264.187
In reply to
42264.185
This is pretty amusing
https://twitter.com/IanDunt