The US Presidential Election 2016 - Teh Forum

<body> <div id="header"> <span class="left"> <span class="back"><a href="lthread_list.php?webtag=DEFAULT"><span class="image mobile_back" title="Back"></span></a></span> <span class="image mobile_logo" title="Beehive Forum Logo"></span> </span> <ul> <li> <a class="reply_all" href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=41828.0&return_msg=41828.60"> <span class="image mobile_reply_all"></span><span class="text">Reply to All</span> </a> </li> <li> <a class="navigation" href="#"> <span class="image mobile_navigation"></span><span class="text">Show messages</span> </a> </li> <li> <a class="main" href="#"><span class="image mobile_menu" title="Menu"></span> </a> </li> </ul> </div> <div class="menu main"> <ul> <li><a href="lthread_list.php?webtag=DEFAULT">Messages</a></li> <li><a href="lpm.php?webtag=DEFAULT">Inbox</a></li> <li><a href="lsearch.php?webtag=DEFAULT">Search</a></li> <li><a href="llogon.php?webtag=DEFAULT">Login</a></li> </ul> </div> <div class="menu navigation"><a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41828.1">1–10</a>…<a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41828.41">41–50</a><a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41828.51">51–60</a><a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41828.61">61–70</a><a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41828.71">71–80</a><a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41828.81">81–85</a></div> <div id="page_content"> <h3 class="thread_title"><a href="index.php?webtag=DEFAULT&amp;msg=41828.60">The US Presidential Election 2016</a> </h3> <div id="messages" data-navigation="41828_60_85_10"> <a name="a41828_60"></a><div class="message" id="message_41828_60"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: milko<span class="message_time">15 Nov 2016 22:50</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: Drew (X3N0PH0N) <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 16 Nov 2016 08:36"></span></span> <span class="message_count">60 of 85</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41828.60">41828.60</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41828.59">41828.59</a></div> <div class="message_body"> It's Monbiot innit, when he's right, he's pretty good at it. I wonder if his book goes on to explore what he's talking about in the final paragraph at all, because that seems like the hard bit.</div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=41828.60&return_msg=41828.60" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="41828.60"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a41828_61"></a><div class="message" id="message_41828_61"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: fixrman<span class="message_time">17 Nov 2016 22:54</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: ANT_THOMAS <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 18 Nov 2016 08:48"></span></span> <span class="message_count">61 of 85</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41828.61">41828.61</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41828.6">41828.6</a></div> <div class="message_body"> I didn't visit here during the "event" because I figured it would be you lot against me.<br /> <div class="quotetext"><strong>Quote:</strong> </div> <div class="quote">Is it really just a giant douche vs a turd sandwich? </div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=41828.61&return_msg=41828.60" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="41828.61"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a41828_62"></a><div class="message" id="message_41828_62"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: ANT_THOMAS<span class="message_time">18 Nov 2016 08:49</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: fixrman <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 18 Nov 2016 11:39"></span></span> <span class="message_count">62 of 85</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41828.62">41828.62</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41828.60#a41828_61" target="_self">41828.61</a></div> <div class="message_body"> You're probably right there, but it still good to see the opposite view if it's properly justified. </div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=41828.62&return_msg=41828.60" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="41828.62"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a41828_63"></a><div class="message" id="message_41828_63"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: Manthorp<span class="message_time">18 Nov 2016 16:21</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: fixrman <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 22 Nov 2016 01:04"></span></span> <span class="message_count">63 of 85</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41828.63">41828.63</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41828.60#a41828_61" target="_self">41828.61</a></div> <div class="message_body"> One thing is for sure: the next four years will be fascinating. I think he may stabilise relationships with Russia (though at the expense of the people of Syria, Georgia and the Ukraine). I think he will increase domestic inequality, which is good if you are in the higher income brackets. Having said that, if he does actually introduce international trade barriers it's just possible that he may raise blue-collar pay packets, though at the cost of higher prices and inflation. Russia notwithstanding I think he will be a disaster for the international standing of the US. I'm sure that he will erode the rights of any citizens who aren't male, heterosexual and/or white.<br /><br /> Buckle in! </div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=41828.63&return_msg=41828.60" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="41828.63"> <span class="rating">+1/1</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a41828_64"></a><div class="message" id="message_41828_64"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: Drew (X3N0PH0N)<span class="message_time">18 Nov 2016 18:16</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: ALL<span class="message_count">64 of 85</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41828.64">41828.64</a></div> <div class="message_body"> Interesting one:<br /><br /> <a href="http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/11/16/you-are-still-crying-wolf/">http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/11/16/you-are-still-crying-wolf/</a></div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=41828.64&return_msg=41828.60" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="41828.64"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a41828_65"></a><div class="message" id="message_41828_65"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)<span class="message_time">18 Nov 2016 18:55</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: Drew (X3N0PH0N) <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 18 Nov 2016 19:43"></span></span> <span class="message_count">65 of 85</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41828.65">41828.65</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41828.60#a41828_64" target="_self">41828.64</a></div> <div class="message_body"> <div class="quotetext"><strong>Quote:</strong> </div> <div class="quote">Trump made gains among blacks. He made gains among Latinos. He made gains among Asians. The only major racial group where he didn’t get a gain of greater than 5% was white people.</div> <p><br /><br /> I think this is (or may be) misleading. From what I understand the black voter turnout was considerably less than for Obama, so although Trump may have got a higher percentage of votes cast by blacks than Romney, this in itself does not indicate heightened black enthusiasm for Trump (don't know about Latinos/Asians).<br /><br /> Most voters vote straight along party lines regardless of the candidate(s), so the key to winning elections is to get your side to actually turn out and vote. Hillary failed at this, but perhaps the outcome was <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/28/professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-elections-correctly-is-doubling-down-on-a-trump-win/?tid=a_inl">preordained anyway</a>:<br /> </p> <div class="quotetext"><strong>Quote:</strong> </div> <div class="quote"> <p>Allan Lichtman says he can predict the outcome of any U.S. presidential election. He often does it months or even years ahead of time. Oh, and his predictions have been right in every presidential election since 1984.</p> <p>But Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at American University, doesn’t use polling, demographics or sophisticated analysis of swing states. He makes his predictions based on 13 true/false statements that he says indicate whether the incumbent party will retain the White House or lose it in a given election.<br /><br /> Lichtman and Russian scientist Volodia Keilis-Borok came up with the keys — a series of true/false statements — in the early 1980s. The idea is that if more than half of the keys are true, the incumbent party will stay in power, and if more than half are false, the challenging party will win the White House.</p> <p>The keys, which are explained in depth in Lichtman’s book <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1442269200/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=1442269200&linkCode=as2&tag=washpost-20&linkId=YTAOSN6PMGX7UWM6">“Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016”</a> are:</p> <ol><li>Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.</li> <li>Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.</li> <li>Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.</li> <li>Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.</li> <li>Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.</li> <li>Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.</li> <li>Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.</li> <li>Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.</li> <li>Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.</li> <li>Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.</li> <li>Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.</li> <li>Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.</li> <li>Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.</li> </ol></div> <p><br /><br /> </p> </div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=41828.65&return_msg=41828.60" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="41828.65"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a41828_66"></a><div class="message" id="message_41828_66"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: Drew (X3N0PH0N)<span class="message_time">18 Nov 2016 19:46</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: CHYRON (DSMITHHFX) <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 19 Nov 2016 01:28"></span></span> <span class="message_count">66 of 85</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41828.66">41828.66</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41828.60#a41828_65" target="_self">41828.65</a></div> <div class="message_body"> >the key to winning elections is to get your side to actually turn out and vote. Hillary failed at this<br /><br /> I agree with that, yeah.</div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=41828.66&return_msg=41828.60" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="41828.66"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a41828_67"></a><div class="message" id="message_41828_67"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: fixrman<span class="message_time">22 Nov 2016 01:23</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: Drew (X3N0PH0N) <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 22 Nov 2016 16:05"></span></span> <span class="message_count">67 of 85</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41828.67">41828.67</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41828.60#a41828_64" target="_self">41828.64</a></div> <div class="message_body"> OK, so what about Hillary Clinton?<br /><br /> Is it possible that the problem with Hillary Clinton is that she is Hillary Clinton? For all of the Trump analysis, how about some good analysis on HRC as a candidate, person, politician.<br /><br /> For all the support she got from the media and the star-power types, she should have been a shoo-in. Katy Perry, Bruce Springsteen - hell, Madonna promised oral attention to males who voted for Clinton (she swallows and maintains a lot of eye contact, according to her).<br /><br /> For those who criticise Trump on having no plan: Well, Hillary has no plan, because her plan is Obama's plan and the Obamas and the Clintons HATE each other.<br /><br /> Isn't it possible that Hillary's loss is all her own fault?</div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=41828.67&return_msg=41828.60" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="41828.67"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a41828_68"></a><div class="message" id="message_41828_68"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)<span class="message_time">22 Nov 2016 13:32</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: fixrman <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 23 Nov 2016 11:29"></span></span> <span class="message_count">68 of 85</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41828.68">41828.68</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41828.60#a41828_67" target="_self">41828.67</a></div> <div class="message_body"> I blame Putin, Assange, Comey, and ~60-million idiots who, due to acute and irreparable mental impairment induced by bad education and the media, can't really be held responsible.<br /><br /> Clinton was a deeply flawed candidate, no question.<div class="edit_text">EDITED: 22 Nov 2016 13:32 by DSMITHHFX</div> </div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=41828.68&return_msg=41828.60" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="41828.68"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a41828_69"></a><div class="message" id="message_41828_69"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)<span class="message_time">22 Nov 2016 15:13</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: ALL<span class="message_count">69 of 85</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41828.69">41828.69</a></div> <div class="message_body"> Also <div class="quotetext"><strong>Quote:</strong> </div> <div class="quote">Hillary has received more votes for president than any white male in the history of the United States. Including Donald Trump.</div> </div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=41828.69&return_msg=41828.60" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="41828.69"> <span class="rating">+1/1</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div></div> <div class="message_page_footer"> <ul> <li class="right_col"><form accept-charset="utf-8" method="get" action="lmessages.php" target="_self"><input type="hidden" name="webtag" id="webtag" class="bhinputtext" value="DEFAULT" dir="ltr" /><input type="hidden" name="msg" id="msg" class="bhinputtext" value="41828.70" dir="ltr" /><input type="submit" name="submit" id="keep_reading" value="Keep reading…" class="button" /></form></li> </ul> </div> </div> </body>