Dump Trump - Teh Forum

<body> <div id="header"> <span class="left"> <span class="back"><a href="lthread_list.php?webtag=DEFAULT"><span class="image mobile_back" title="Back"></span></a></span> <span class="image mobile_logo" title="Beehive Forum Logo"></span> </span> <ul> <li> <a class="reply_all" href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=41641.0&return_msg=41641.90"> <span class="image mobile_reply_all"></span><span class="text">Reply to All</span> </a> </li> <li> <a class="navigation" href="#"> <span class="image mobile_navigation"></span><span class="text">Show messages</span> </a> </li> <li> <a class="main" href="#"><span class="image mobile_menu" title="Menu"></span> </a> </li> </ul> </div> <div class="menu main"> <ul> <li><a href="lthread_list.php?webtag=DEFAULT">Messages</a></li> <li><a href="lpm.php?webtag=DEFAULT">Inbox</a></li> <li><a href="lsearch.php?webtag=DEFAULT">Search</a></li> <li><a href="llogon.php?webtag=DEFAULT">Login</a></li> </ul> </div> <div class="menu navigation"><a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41641.1">1–10</a>…<a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41641.71">71–80</a><a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41641.81">81–90</a><a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41641.91">91–100</a><a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41641.101">101–110</a>…<a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41641.201">201–207</a></div> <div id="page_content"> <h3 class="thread_title"><a href="index.php?webtag=DEFAULT&amp;msg=41641.90">Dump Trump</a> </h3> <div id="messages" data-navigation="41641_90_207_10"> <a name="a41641_90"></a><div class="message" id="message_41641_90"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: Harry (HARRYN)<span class="message_time"> 1 Feb 2016 17:56</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: ALL<span class="message_count">90 of 207</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41641.90">41641.90</a></div> <div class="message_body"> Entering into the first two stages of the primary elections, I can't help but look at some candidate strengths and weaknesses as they enter Iowa and New Hampshire. Of course this is just my own, amateur opinion, but I did grow up in the midwest, and I lived in IA for a few years while in college.<br /><br /> The IA caucus is not a general voters primary, it is very much a strange, old fashion town hall meeting style, chaotic event, with great organizing in the background. This organizing effort actually is more important than how people intend to vote when they go there.<br /><br /> Trump Strengths (as they related to the IA caucus system)<br /> - Wall street hates him, so this makes him interesting to people in IA, as they don't really like people from NY and especially from wall street.<br /> - The people of IA tend to be moderates and while religious, not so verbal about their religion like people from the south (Cruz )<br /> - People in IA feel pretty screwed over by both parties, so there is no love for the party extremes.<br /> - He has not taken any money from the Koch brothers<br /> - His team is well organized and really understands high tech marketing<br /> - He says that he is pro - second amendment<br /><br /><br /> Trump Weakness<br /> - He is from NY, and honestly, that is a huge liability for any candidate running for President in any state - except NY<br /> - He is a bit of an open bully, and this does always go over that well<br /> - He has openly complained about workers making too much money<br /> - People are not entirely sure that he is really pro second amendment<br /> <div class="edit_text">EDITED: 1 Feb 2016 17:57 by HARRYN</div> </div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=41641.90&return_msg=41641.90" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="41641.90"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a41641_91"></a><div class="message" id="message_41641_91"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: Manthorp<span class="message_time"> 1 Feb 2016 18:01</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: Harry (HARRYN) <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 1 Feb 2016 18:10"></span></span> <span class="message_count">91 of 207</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41641.91">41641.91</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41641.90#a41641_90" target="_self">41641.90</a></div> <div class="message_body"> It seems like a tortuous process. The UK general elections are tedious enough (even when there's a surprise at the end, like the 2015 election), but the US presidential elections seem bloody interminable.<br /><br /> Are the Senate elections synchronised (or anti-synchronised) with the White House race?</div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=41641.91&return_msg=41641.90" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="41641.91"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a41641_92"></a><div class="message" id="message_41641_92"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: Harry (HARRYN)<span class="message_time"> 1 Feb 2016 18:09</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: ALL<span class="message_count">92 of 207</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41641.92">41641.92</a></div> <div class="message_body"> Cruz Strengths - as they relate to IA<br /> - He is not Trump<br /> - Appeals to the "strongly openly religious crowd<br /> - He is not from NY<br /> - There are a fair number of Hispanics in IA and he is trying to appeal to this group<br /> - Extraordinarily large number of very organized team members working every detail with a very sophisticated electoral simulation software package.<br /> - Pro - gun ownership, a virtual requirement to win in IA, because people believe that if you don't respect "one" right of the individual, then you can't be trusted to respect any of them.<br /><br /> Weakness<br /> - He is from Texas, and while that used to be OK, after a few too many presidents from there, it is now a questionable heritage.<br /> - The perception is that he is "just barely a native born American". Since it was Canada, still might work.<br /> - He is from a strong oil state, and was foolish enough to tell people in IA that corn ethanol is a bad idea. No matter your opinion, you don't say that out loud in IA. It is sort of like telling a woman that she is stupid, ugly, and poorly dressed - then asking her out on a date. <br /> - He shut down the entire government of the US over a minor issue, just for the publicity<br /> - He does not understand the difference between how the republican party leaders think, and how republican voters think</div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=41641.92&return_msg=41641.90" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="41641.92"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a41641_93"></a><div class="message" id="message_41641_93"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: Harry (HARRYN)<span class="message_time"> 1 Feb 2016 18:17</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: Manthorp <span><span class="image post_read" title="Read: 1 Feb 2016 18:25"></span></span> <span class="message_count">93 of 207</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41641.93">41641.93</a> In reply to <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41641.90#a41641_91" target="_self">41641.91</a></div> <div class="message_body"> <div class="quotetext"><b>quote:</b> <a href="messages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41641.91">Manthorp</a></div> <div class="quote">It seems like a tortuous process. The UK general elections are tedious enough (even when there's a surprise at the end, like the 2015 election), but the US presidential elections seem bloody interminable.<br /><br /> Are the Senate elections synchronised (or anti-synchronised) with the White House race?</div> <p>Yes it is, in fact, the election cycle actually never ends. The day after the election, the next one begins.<br /><br /> Presidential term is 4 years<br /> Senate term is 6 years<br /> Congressional term is 2 years<br /><br /> I think that there is also a setup so that only some of them are up for election at the same time, so that you don't risk ending up with a congress full of people who don't understand how it works. Imagine if somehow you had all new people and no one knew the rules - pretty crazy.<br /><br /> The 2 year congress term is particularly problematic from a corruption perspective. They have to spend nearly all of their time fund raising for the next election, so they are inherently open to being influenced by someone with a willingness to donate to the campaign fund. It doesn't help that if they don't spend the money on the campaign, they can keep it - tax free.<br /><br /> My education was in chemical engineering and I am more of a business man, so don't be surprised if you see errors in how the offices are setup.<br /><br /><br /> </p> </div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=41641.93&return_msg=41641.90" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="41641.93"> <span class="rating">+1/1</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a41641_94"></a><div class="message" id="message_41641_94"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: Harry (HARRYN)<span class="message_time"> 1 Feb 2016 18:22</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: ALL<span class="message_count">94 of 207</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41641.94">41641.94</a></div> <div class="message_body"> Rubio Strengths - as they related to IA<br /> - He is Hispanic<br /> - He isn't Trump<br /> - He is not from Texas or NY<br /> - Follows the party line on topics<br /> - Dresses professionally<br /><br /> Weakness<br /> - He is actually really mean to other Hispanics. As soon as you move away from his background, you wonder why anyone who is Hispanic would vote for him.<br /> - He is stuck in the cold war era of holding a grudge against Cuba, and a lot of Americans think this policy is ridiculous and counter productive<br /> - Foolish tax ideas<br /> - His team is not nearly as organized as other teams<div class="edit_text">EDITED: 1 Feb 2016 19:39 by HARRYN</div> </div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=41641.94&return_msg=41641.90" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="41641.94"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a41641_95"></a><div class="message" id="message_41641_95"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: Harry (HARRYN)<span class="message_time"> 1 Feb 2016 18:28</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: ALL<span class="message_count">95 of 207</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41641.95">41641.95</a></div> <div class="message_body"> Chris Christie Stengths<br /> - He is a good at running a campaign<br /> - He says the right things<br /> - Has good financial backing<br /> - He is good at "strong - arm" tactics<br /><br /> Weakness<br /> - No one believes him<br /> - He is from New Jersey, possibly an even more politically corrupt state than NY<br /> - New Jersey has some of the most restrictive gun laws in the US, and is known for trampling on peoples rights, and wiping out businesses just for fun.<br /><br /> </div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=41641.95&return_msg=41641.90" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="41641.95"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a41641_96"></a><div class="message" id="message_41641_96"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: Harry (HARRYN)<span class="message_time"> 1 Feb 2016 18:32</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: ALL<span class="message_count">96 of 207</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41641.96">41641.96</a></div> <div class="message_body"> Rand Paul - Strengths in IA<br /> - Conservative, but very much appeals to moderates and the political center of the US<br /> - Solid tax plan<br /> - Does not say crazy things<br /> - His father is Rand Paul, who is well known in US politics and had (has) a strong following<br /> - Rand Paul surprised everyone in past elections with his organizing skills in IA, really pulled off a stealth campaign.<br /> - Electable in the general election<br /><br /> Weakness<br /> - Lacks funding because wall street does not like him<br /> - Does not have extremists views, so he does not appeal to those with extremist positions.<br /> - Professional, but might not be flashy enough</div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=41641.96&return_msg=41641.90" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="41641.96"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a41641_97"></a><div class="message" id="message_41641_97"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: Harry (HARRYN)<span class="message_time"> 1 Feb 2016 19:20</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: ALL<span class="message_count">97 of 207</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41641.97">41641.97</a></div> <div class="message_body"> Clinton Strengths<br /> - Tireless campaigner<br /> - Very strong political ties both domestically and internationally<br /> - Most likely, she would be very effective at what she sets out to do, no matter if you like it or not.<br /> - Strongly tied to Bloomberg and the NY financial markets, so well backed by money and media<br /> - She is a woman, and really expects most women to vote for her, no matter of their political affiliation.<br /> - She has the "super delegates" already tied up, so Sanders would need to win by an astronomical amount in the primaries, and then could still loose the party nomination<br /> - Very strong ties to the pro-Israel lobby, so she can use this to her advantage on most candidates and political opposition.<br /><br /> Weakness<br /> - She is a former Senator from NY, never a good think in middle America<br /> - She doesn't really relate well to the average person<br /> - Her positions tend to be very extreme, you either really agree with her, or you really disagree. She will have a hard time appealing to moderates.<br /><br /> I am not really sure how significant the past issues of email servers and the Benghazi incident really are among Dem voters. A few ex Marines that I know are really upset at these incidents, but they probably didn't like her for other reasons already.<b> </b></div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=41641.97&return_msg=41641.90" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="41641.97"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a41641_98"></a><div class="message" id="message_41641_98"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: Harry (HARRYN)<span class="message_time"> 1 Feb 2016 19:35</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: ALL<span class="message_count">98 of 207</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41641.98">41641.98</a></div> <div class="message_body"> Bernie Sanders Strengths in IA<br /> - He is not Clinton<br /> - The financial markets hate him<br /> - His policies are aimed straight toward people in the 17 - 30 year old range, who are a really disenfranchised group in the US.<br /> - He is Jewish, so he does not have to worry about being attacked the the pro-Israel lobby. Nonetheless, he keeps this to a moderate level, so his religion is not hurting him like being Mormon hurt Romney.<br /> - Very well planned out campaign, and he is good at working as an under dog role.<br /> - Draws from voter distrust that Clinton was the "obvious party choice".<br /> - He is much more likely to respect the rights of the individual than Clinton, although not perfectly, at least better.<br /><br /> Weakness<br /> - Age / old while guy problem with connecting with voters<br /> - Wall street really hates him. They hate him so much, that Bloomberg is considering to enter the Presidential race as an independent party, for the sole reason of making sure that he does not become President.<br /> - Kind of a wild spender with very expensive ideas. In the end, it won't matter, because the Senate and Congress are pretty conservative right now, so many of the ideas won't go through.<br /> - Bill Clinton can still pull a crowd into a campaign, both primaries and general election. Sanders needs to be very careful to not attack Clinton in the primary, or risk loosing the largest party fund raiser support.<br /> - Biden wants to have a major role under Clinton in the next Presidency, either chief of staff, or VP. If Sanders does extremely well in the primary, but not enough to win the nomination, it will be very hard to not give him the VP slot. For that reason, Biden will be anti - Sanders.<br /> - Obama wants to be nominated to the UN or Supreme court, and Clinton will do this in exchange for support. </div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=41641.98&return_msg=41641.90" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="41641.98"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div><a name="a41641_99"></a><div class="message" id="message_41641_99"> <div class="message_header"> <div class="message_from"> From: Harry (HARRYN)<span class="message_time"> 1 Feb 2016 19:43</span> <div class="clearer"></div> </div><div class="message_to">To: ALL<span class="message_count">99 of 207</span><div class="clearer"></div> </div> </div> <div class="message_links"> <a href="lmessages.php?webtag=DEFAULT&msg=41641.99">41641.99</a></div> <div class="message_body"> And - just to keep life exciting, the people of IA have learned to have some "fun" with this over burdening election process and the polls.<br /><br /> They take great pride in pulling jokes on pollsters by telling them different viewpoints and opinions, week to week, just to mess them up and see what the latest poll results show.<br /><br /> Right now, the election simulations show that in the Trump vs. Cruz portion in IA, the winner will be determined by how much it snows.<br /><br /> That is why I suggest to people that they don't get too excited about it all.<div class="edit_text">EDITED: 1 Feb 2016 19:45 by HARRYN</div> </div> <div class="message_footer"> <div class="message_footer_links"><a href="lpost.php?webtag=DEFAULT&reply_to=41641.99&return_msg=41641.90" class="reply"><span class="image post"></span>Reply</a></div> <div class="message_vote_form" data-msg="41641.99"> <span class="rating">0/0</span> <span class="image vote vote_down vote_down_off" title="Vote Down"></span> <span class="image vote vote_up vote_up_off" title="Vote Up"></span> </div> </div> </div></div> <div class="message_page_footer"> <ul> <li class="right_col"><form accept-charset="utf-8" method="get" action="lmessages.php" target="_self"><input type="hidden" name="webtag" id="webtag" class="bhinputtext" value="DEFAULT" dir="ltr" /><input type="hidden" name="msg" id="msg" class="bhinputtext" value="41641.100" dir="ltr" /><input type="submit" name="submit" id="keep_reading" value="Keep reading…" class="button" /></form></li> </ul> </div> </div> </body>