Your definition of c) presumes that that the majority of pirate releases of Windows are dodgey. My experience, and I'm sure most/all people on here who've jim'd Windows, would certainly suggest that that's a load of balls.
>>Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Perhaps?
I never said it was, but when looking at probabilities past performance, with the appropriate caveats, is better than nothing.
I've never been hit by a bus when crossing the road. I might be tomorrow, as it's technically possible for that to happen, but I'm guessing it probably wont. On account of having a modicum of inteligence and thinking to check what's coming before comiting to crossing the road.